This month’s Italian election became the latest significant indication of the growing strength of populism, at least in the West and possibly beyond. Two populist parties — the Five Star Movement and the League — did very well and will play key roles in shaping Italy’s political future. While the Five Star Movement is somewhat left-wing and the League is often considered to be a far-right party, an important part of their electoral success and of the broader populist wave is the way these movements break down traditional left-right political spectrums in Europe and the United States. Populists are forming coalitions around issues such as anti-immigrant sentiment and skepticism about the EU and broader global institutions. They increasingly present a threat to the post-Second World War international system that, despite its many flaws, overall has made the world a safer and more prosperous place. Europe and the US are experiencing a massive anti-establishment wave, which is mostly taking the form of populist political movements. In Europe, populist movements in Hungary, Serbia, Austria, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Greece, Italy, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Sweden have all gained momentum in recent years, with varying degrees of success. In the US, Donald Trump campaigned on a strong populist message, and his recent decision to impose new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports demonstrates his populist and anti-globalist tendencies. In 2018, it is less clear if populism has extensive appeal beyond the West, though it has historically played a strong role in Latin American politics. However, there are some indications that it matters today in other parts of the world, too. For example, some experts have suggested that Japan, India and the Philippines are experiencing populist trends. While there are multiple definitions of populism, typically it takes the form of a leader claiming to represent “the people” against a corrupt and unrepresentative elite. There are multiple problems with this, including big questions about exactly who “the people” the leader claims to represent are. Nonetheless, populism’s siren song can feel magnetic in societies where many people feel left out or are generally fed up with the current form of governance and economics. If you mix in significant demographic change and fears about the loss of group identity, as is happening today in Europe and the US, populism can be a potent potion. Today, many Europeans and Americans are generally disenchanted with their governing and economic systems, so the populist message of tearing it down and creating something new is appealing. The problem is that people within the US and European countries are deeply divided about what they want to replace their current systems with. This makes fixing the system or building a new, better functioning one difficult and can be a recipe for ongoing political and economic instability. If the major powers and economies that created the international framework and still drive much of it start turning their backs on global trade and migration, the system will be in serious trouble. Kerry Boyd Anderson Deep divisions within a society also provide fuel for populists, who often are good at drawing supporters from different ideological or political groups. As Sam Wilkin, author of the forthcoming book “History Repeating: Why Populists Rise and Governments Fall,” recently wrote, populists’ focus on railing against the system allows them to “pick up support from people with very different views on politics and policy.” To put the populist wave in perspective, they are not fully taking over Europe, let alone the world. In France in 2017, far-right populists gained a lot of momentum but then easily lost to centrist Emmanuel Macron; importantly, Macron and his new party offered voters a non-populist alternative to the traditional mainstream parties. Also in 2017, centrists in the Netherlands easily defeated the far-right party of Geert Wilders in elections. In close 2016 Austrian presidential elections, an independent won over a far-right candidate, but then the far-right party did very well in 2017 parliamentary elections. Despite some losses for populists, they are clearly doing well politically in the West today. Dissatisfaction with economic opportunities, fear of demographic change (especially immigration in the US and the migrant crisis of recent years in Europe), and a sense that power is seeping out of the West into the rest of the world and challenging traditional European and American identities are all contributing to the appeal of populism. None of these drivers are likely to change, and the electoral success of populism might prompt other politicians to try the same approach. With ebbs and flows, populism is going to be a major trend for years. This will pose major challenges to the future of the EU, but beyond that it also will pose challenges for the continuation of the post-Second World War system and economic and political globalization. If the major powers and economies that created the system and still drive much of it start turning their backs on global trade, migration and the institutions that underpin the global system, it will be in serious trouble. That is bad news for the countries that built the system and bad news for the emerging powers and economies that have learned how to benefit from it. However, it might provide incentives for those who benefit from the modern global system to find ways to counter populism. Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 14 years’ experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risks. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica and managing editor of Arms Control Today. Twitter: @KBAresearch