IMF Stresses Reform to Tackle Unemployment in Middle East

  • 5/2/2018
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The International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday that current levels of growth in the Middle East will not generate enough jobs for the region’s predominantly young region. An IMF report said that nearly a quarter of the region’s youth are unemployed. "This region is a very young region. Almost 60 percent of the population is below 30 and the level of unemployment at the youth level exceeds 30 percent," said Jihad Azour, the IMFs Mideast and Central Asia department director. "This needs to be addressed." The IMF therefore called for deeper reforms otherwise millions of young people entering the labor market each year may not find jobs. Economic growth for oil-exporting countries in the region topped 5 percent in 2016, but slowed to 1.7 percent just a year later. The IMF predicted an upward trend of close to 3 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2019. For the Middle Easts oil-importing nations, economic growth is expected to remain steady at well over 4 percent. Azour, who spoke with The Associated Press for the launch of a new report, said countries in the region must push ahead with deeper structural reforms. The IMF is urging governments to upgrade the skills of their workforce and provide the private sector with greater access to finance. The IMF has also encouraged Mideast oil importers and exporters to reduce spending and find new sources of revenue by introducing new taxes and lifting subsidies. This year, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain introduced a 5 percent value-added tax to most goods and services to increase state revenue. The IMFs report stressed that structural reforms in the region "should also be underpinned by efforts to increase transparency and accountability, and by stronger institutions and governance." The IMF predicts growth rates of about 4.9 percent over the coming five years for oil-importing Middle Eastern countries, but says these "growth rates remain too low to effectively reduce unemployment, particularly for young people." These countries, which include Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Syria, would need sustained growth of at least 6.2 percent a year just to keep unemployment at its current average rate of 10 percent, the IMF report found. The IMFs updated regional outlook said that governments in the region continue to spend heavily to employ their nationals with large and growing public sector wage bills. Despite this, the IMF says "unemployment has remained high, and overly generous public sector compensation has distorted labor markets." At 50 percent, Oman has the highest percentage of youth unemployment of any Arab country. Seventy percent of women in Oman are also outside the labor force, according to the IMF. The lender noted some positive steps taken by countries to address these issues. The UAE, for example, has invested in education and innovation. Egypt doubled its budget allocation for public day care to assist women going back to work. In oil-importing Egypt, tourism and export levels have improved since last year. Growth is projected to rise to 5.2 percent this year, up 1 percent from last year. The IMF expects growth to reach 5.5 percent in 2019, aided by an increase in gas production. Azour said Egypt needs to create between 700,000 to 1 million new jobs per year. He said Egypt must take steps to allow the private sector to create these jobs sustainably. "Allow the private sector to be in the leading role and for the state to move from being an operator to an enabler, and give more room for the private sector to invest" he said. Overall growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which includes all Arab countries and Iran, was forecast by the IMF to reach 3.2 percent this year compared to just 2.2 percent in 2017. Following the oil price slump in mid-2014, Gulf Cooperation Council members undertook fiscal measures and reforms to cut public spending and boost non-oil revenues. Azour said that Saudi Arabias economic consolidation measures to cut a persistent budget deficit and diversify the economy away from oil remains the correct policy. "The current strategy that is based on reaching a balanced budget by 2023 is the right one," he said.

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