Collapse of nuclear deal could be fateful for Iran

  • 5/6/2018
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With Iran showing no signs of compromise over meeting some of President Donald Trump’s demands over the nuclear deal, it is difficult to predict what may happen in the short time left before he decides whether to renew a sanctions waiver on May 12. Some see the Iranian regime’s blocking of the popular social media app Telegram as a precautionary act ahead of the deadline to stave off any possible protests that could be organized by its 40 million users. If the regime in Tehran is desperate to save the nuclear deal, it’s because the people will confront the rulers if they are forced to suffer another course of hardships from another round of sanctions. The public has almost zero tolerance for mismanagement, and the regime is aware that it doesn’t take much to ignite their anger. So from the Iranian point of view, the failure of the nuclear deal could play a fateful role in the Islamic republic’s future. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called on President Trump not to withdraw from the international deal, which curbs development of Iran"s nuclear weapons. In an interview with BBC Radio on Thursday, Guterres said the Middle East is in a dangerous position and there is a risk of war if the deal is not preserved. Guterres said the deal was an important achievement and a diplomatic victory that must be preserved. It should not be scrapped, he added, unless there is a better alternative. At this stage, just a week before the deadline, it is clear there is no better alternative. Camelia Entekhabifard And yet at this stage, just a week before the deadline, it is clear there is no better alternative. Iran refused to negotiate over matters such as the time frame of the deal, which expires in 2025, or its involvement in regional issues such as the conflicts in Syria or Yemen. If the holes in the nuclear deal can’t be fixed, President Trump has threatened to withdraw even if his partners in the West stay committed to it. Iran’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Hamid Baeidinejad, who was part of the negotiation team 2013-2015, told CNN on Wednesday that if the US leaves, there"s “no deal left.” We don’t know exactly what the public opinion is in Iran without a survey to give us an indication, but from people’s reactions on social media, many accused the government for misusing the opportunities to thaw relations with the United States when Barack Obama was in office. Not long ago, when the sanctions were active, the economy suffered from a shortfall in oil revenue. Russia and China expanded their export of goods to the large Iranian market; both countries could possibly stand to gain if the nuclear deal falls apart. If President Trump remains committed to the nuclear deal with its current terms, nothing would change in terms of improving the economic or social lives of the Iranian people. On the other hand, if he pulls out of the deal, that would put pressure on Iran politically and economically, and the government would be prepared to take any necessary action against civilians. It appears Iran just wants the West to convince President Trump to waive the sanctions even conditionally on May 12 until it can find a way to get engaged in talks that would let it control the damages. Camelia Entekhabifard is an Iranian-American journalist, political commentator and author of Camelia: Save Yourself By Telling the Truth (Seven Stories Press, 2008). Twitter: @CameliaFard

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