What May must do to keep fringe at bay

  • 5/6/2018
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Thursday’s UK local elections results revealed a mixed picture for Prime Minister Theresa May, who is now entering a critical political period with final-stage Brexit negotiations imminent. The opposition Labour Party had its best success since the early 1970s in London, making numerous gains, but overall losses for the ruling Conservatives were curtailed, which means May remains politically vulnerable, but will not be dislodged from power in the immediate term. The reason why the Conservative vote held up better than some forecasts was largely driven by the almost complete collapse of the populist, Euro-skeptic United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), with much of its previous voter bloc migrating to May’s party. UKIP lost 123 of the 126 Council seats across the nation which it was defending. Many voters deem the anti-Brussels party now redundant with Britain scheduled to exit the EU in less than a year’s time. In a premiership that has been defined by Brexit, May will now move forward on two difficult fronts with the UK’s exit plans. Firstly, through negotiations with Brussels over a final settlement, and secondly, she must also get EU withdrawal legislation through Parliament. However, while most eyes are still focused on the complexity of the Brexit issue, it is potentially other issues that could be as determinative of the success of May’s remaining premiership. When she entered 10 Downing Street in July 2016, she inherited many long-standing, contentious policy decisions, ranging from vexed challenges such as pensions reform and the country’s housing crisis to big multi-billion-pound infrastructure issues such as whether to move forward with expanding Heathrow, Gatwick and potentially the wider airport infrastructure, despite concerns about flight emissions and global warming. A key danger is that other key non-Brexit decisions could get kicked out into the political “long grass” again. Yet at such a crucial moment it is important they are prioritized and sensibly addressed in the best interests of the country. Failure to do so, and make decisions that build public trust, after years of waiting, could further undermine confidence in the democratic process. For especially after the Brexit vote, which underlined widespread disillusionment with political elites that was previously capitalized on by UKIP, elected politicians must now show themselves capable of building consensus to overcome more key, long-term policy challenges. The danger, if not, is that the appeal of populist and nationalist politicians and parties will grow in popularity again with the often half-baked, damaging agendas they champion. May has highlighted this in key speeches in which she warned of the “potential failure of centre-ground politics” unless it tackles tough issues and responds to public concerns. Elected politicians must now show themselves capable of building consensus to overcome more key, long-term policy challenges. Andrew Hammond Of course, piling up of such major policy questions is not just a UK problem. In the United States, for instance, the failure of Congress during the Obama presidency to deliver reforms in areas such as immigration and long-term federal budget financing was a notable feature of the political landscape. As in the United Kingdom, this has been one driver of disenchantment, helping propel Donald Trump to the White House. Trump, like UKIP, has numerous policy prescriptions that will do more public harm than good, but nonetheless appeals to people alienated from the conventional political process. As May has noted, meeting these tough-to-solve, first-order challenges is a significant hurdle that democratic institutions and politicians must do better. A key part of the solution is promoting longer-term political outlooks and sensible, cross-party discussion rather than the increasing tendency toward short-termism. There is also a pressing need for wider democratic renewal. Here, there are some commonalities but also key differences in the reforms needed across different countries. The challenge is particularly pressing in the United Kingdom in the wake of the Brexit vote. The referendum revealed a deeply divided nation with many feeling disconnected from the political process with a range of long-standing concerns from immigration to stagnant living standards. Contrary to what some populist and nationalist politicians assert, there is no “silver bullet” agenda that can address these challenges overnight. Instead, a long-term, concerted effort is needed to better address these issues through a range of educational, home affairs, economic and other policies. And alongside this, politicians must try to find new ways of engaging with people, including through the possibilities offered by new technologies. Collectively, such an agenda can move towards demonstrating more effectively how fair and inclusive democratic politics can help overcome or ameliorate the challenges that many people are experiencing in the face of globalization. Failure to do so, and to better demonstrate the positive impact that politics can make in key policy areas from immigration, to housing, energy and pensions, may only lead to rejuvenated support for fringe politics, with its often ill-considered, ineffective policy platforms. Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.

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