Lebanon: Fierce Electoral Battle to Weigh Strength of Sunni, Christian Leaders

  • 5/6/2018
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Lebanon’s parliamentary elections, the first since 2009, will determine the strength of the Sunni and Christian leaders, as the fiercest battles will take place in the North, mainly in the districts of Tripoli and Bsharri-Batroun-Zgharta-Koura, home to three potential presidential candidates. Unlike the Shiite and Druze communities, which maintain their leaderships since 1992, intense electoral battles are taking place in northern Lebanon, aimed at consecrating Sunni and Christian leaders. In the Sunni arena, the Future Movement is seeking to establish its leadership, or at least consolidate its presence in the North. In Tripoli, Former Prime Minister Najib Mikati is heading a list against the Future, while another battle is fought against the two sides by Former Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi. Elections in the North are the fiercest for Sunni candidates, given that the Future Movement is expected to have an easy battle in Beirut, where it will retain a large share of parliamentary seats. As for the Christian scene, the strongest electoral battles are taking place in the third district of the North, which includes Bsharri, Batroun, Koura and Zgharta. Three potential presidential candidates are battling in this district, namely Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, who is from Batroun, MP Sleiman Franjieh of Zgharta and Lebanese Forces Party leader Samir Geagea of Bsharri. These districts also have the largest proportion of Christian voters, meaning that the results will be determined by the Christian vote. In Mount Lebanon, the fourth district, formed of Aley and Chouf, will see a strong competition between the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and another list backed by the Lebanese Forces (LF), the Future Movement and the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP). Unlike the Sunni and Christian electoral arenas, elections among the Druze are expected to be relaxed, given the absence of a serious and influential Druze rivalry with the PSP, headed by MP Walid Jumblatt. As for Shiites, the southern districts will not witness fierce battles, due to the lack of an influential Shiite bloc in the face of Amal Movement and Hezbollah; knowing that in southern Lebanon, five lists are competing in the third district and two lists are competing in the second district (Zahrani and Tyr). However, the opponents of the Shiite duo are engaging in a heated battle in the Bekaa, to win at least one of the six parliamentary seats previously occupied by Hezbollah and Amal in Baalbek-Hermel. Candidate Yehia Shams is allied with the Lebanese Forces and the Future Movement against the Shiite duo.

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