Egypt’s Central Bank Maintains Interest Rates While Anticipating Inflationary Measures

  • 5/19/2018
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Egypt’s central bank has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, as the government prepares for a new round of fuel subsidy cuts against a backdrop of rising global oil prices. This is contrary to some analysts expectations and raises doubts on the pace of the decline in the cost of lending to the business community under the reforms committed by the government with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which will have a reflection on inflation in the coming period. The central bank kept its deposit rate at 16.75 percent and the overnight lending rate at 17.75 percent, it said in a statement. Beltone Financial expected the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), through the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), to cut interest rates on the pound by about 100 basis points. “We reiterate our view of an interest rate cut by 100 basis points, as the government seems more capable of absorbing inflationary pressures so far. We still believe in another interest trim before the end of the fiscal year 2017/2018 prior to reducing subsidies,” the report stated. According to a report by the company’s research department, the annual headline inflation rate continued its downward trend in April this year, falling from 13.3 percent in March to 13.1 percent in line with the company’s projections of 13 percent, supported by food prices falling from 11.8 percent in March 2018 to 11.1 percent. Inflation climbed after Egypt floated its currency to secure a $12 billion IMF loan, reaching a record high of about 33 percent in July following cuts in energy subsidies. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food, increased marginally to 11.62 percent year-on-year in April from 11.59 percent in March, ending an eight-month streak of declining rates, Reuters reported.

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