When US Secretary of Treasury Steve Mnuchin stepped out on Sunday to announce that the trade war with China was off for the time being, enthusiasm was muted. The US is halting plans to impose tariffs on $150 billion of Chinese imports. Markets took the news positively. Over the weekend a Chinese delegation negotiated with a US group led by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. The latter is an outspoken hard-liner and hawk when it comes to the US China trade relationship. Mnuchin announced that the two teams had reached broad agreement on a framework and that the details were to be hammered out in subsequent rounds of negotiations. He mentioned that China had agreed to import substantially more agricultural produce and energy, especially LNG from the US. Mnuchin was tight lipped as to the exact content of the “framework agreement.” As so often with the Trump administration, the overall picture looks positive, but it lacks specifics. What about intellectual property rights, what about semiconductors and so on? When pressed, Mnuchin mentioned that intellectual property rights were on the agenda to be discussed. All will now depend on what shape these future negotiations take. Trade negotiations are detail driven, drawn out processes. When it comes to trade, the devil lies in the minutiae like in no other aspect of international relations. We should be careful about cheering prematurely, because there will be many roadblocks that can derail the process — not least the temperament of the US president. This was a far cry from Trump’s stated intention of reducing the US China trade deficit by $200 billion. (It currently stands at $ 337 billion.) What happened? Trump for one has a summit with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore on June 12. He needs to keep China onside for these negotiations, because the promised billions of dollars of Chinese economic aid to North Korea would certainly help to sweeten a deal on nuclear disarmament for Kim Jong-un. There were also wobbles over Chinese telecoms giant ZTE. The company had broken an agreement witch the US Departments of Justice, which included a $1.2 billion fine for breaking sanctions with North Korea and Iran. An ill-advised tweet by the president claiming leniency in order to “protect” Chinese jobs fostered outrage and undermined the US negotiating position. The hawks in both China and the US each feel their own side have already conceded too much. Cornelia Meyer All in all, the trade war may be suspended for now, but all bets are off for what happens in the future. We should watch out for the outcome of the Kim-Trump meeting. If it were to be unsuccessful, the US President might have little incentive to go easy on China going forward. This is trade which is why the detail will matter and we need to understand more about what exactly the two negotiating positions will be. Agriculture and LNG by themselves will in all likelihood not reduce the trade deficit sufficiently for Trump’s liking. All in all, the US probably missed a golden opportunity to focus on the real issue of China’s economic relationship with the rest of the world. The made in China 2025 initiative was not on the table either. It is highly relevant, because it focuses on new technology and AI. Intellectual property rights do matter in that context.” The hawks in both China and the US each feel their own side have already conceded too much. These domestic undercurrents will shape how the negotiating positions of both parties evolve. On Tuesday China revealed it would address issues concerning intellectual property rights and investment regulations. These are the right noises. However, the statement lacks specificity and in the end may not be enough to appease the Trump administration. The crisis may be averted for now, but the trade war is far from over. Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macroeconomist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources