Regardless of the results of the early elections in Turkey, it is likely to have certain changes or fine tunings in its foreign policy including its relations with the West which have experienced a number of downs, further downs but not that much of ups in the last few years. After being established through a War of Independence between 1918 and 1923 against the Western invaders following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, the Turkish Republic has opted for a Western system in a dominantly Muslim society. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who led the Independence War initiated a series of reforms to orient the new Turkish system according to the Western values of the time. First of all the Caliphate was abandoned to separate government from religion. Then it was followed by changing the measurements to metric system, scripture from Arabic to Latin, civil code and election law to impose gender equality, education not based on Quranic teaching and economic reforms to attract foreign investment which was necessary to be in good relations with the West. Having good relations with the West was necessary for the young Turkish Republic also for security reasons, especially when its northern neighbour and historical rival Russia was run by Stalin’s Communist Party. After managing to stay out of the Second World War with a lot of manoeuvring Turkey was first taken under the solidarity provided by the U.S. President Harry Truman’s Truman Doctrine and after sending troops to the 1950 Korean War into the Western defence alliance NATO. But that relationship has never been without problems. Those observers, especially the Middle Eastern observers tend to see the current rift between Turkey and the U.S. as an unprecedented one, forgetting that the U.S. has actually imposed an arms embargo on Turkey in 1975, at the heat of the Cold War which in return Turkey had closed its bases, including the strategic air base of Incirlik for the use of Americans for three years. Yet, today it is a bit different because there are now three main reasons of rift, not one with the U.S. all of them being agitated since the break of the Arab Spring and especially during the civil war in Syria. Those are; the American pick against the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) as the People’s protection Units (YPG) which is the Syria extension of Turkey’s arch enemy the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK); the U.S. resident Islamist preacher Fethullah Gülen who is accused of masterminding a military coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in 2016 (which is related to the arrest of an Evangelic pastor, Andrew Brunson in Turkey; and Turkey’s choice to buy Russian made S-400 air defence missiles which is not NATO interoperable and alien to NATO weapon systems, due to reluctance of the American administration to sell Patriot air defence systems to Turkey. The relations with the Europe are full of problems as well. Turkey is one of the founding members of the Council of Europe (CoE) for Western democratic standards as set by the rulings of the European Court of Human Rights. Yet, Turkey is under heavy fire from both the CoE and the European Union (EU) which Turkey wants to be a member for more than half a century now with little improvement. There are reasons sourcing from EU and sourcing from Turkey for that. The EU is accusing Turkey to lag behind the democratic standards, especially after the declaration of the State of Emergency by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Parti) government right after the July 15, 2016 coup attempt, particularly under the areas of court independence and freedom of expression and media. President Erdoğan who once was the most favoured Turkish politician as seen as the flag bearer of democracy in a Muslim society by those who thought the only problem against more democracy was the military. But nowadays he is among the most despised world leaders by the Western media and many Western politicians. Erdoğan in return slams the European governments for not showing necessary solidarity when it comes to Turkey’s security concerns, for example by harbouring PKK and providing asylum to those (former) Turkish military officers who fled following the coup attempt; Germany and Greece are particularly criticized for that. On the other hand the democratic standards in the West is in a regression as well. Donald Trump administration in the U.S. is both shaking the world with an aggressive unilateralism and escalating populism in his own country. A number of EU governments are criticised within because of deviating from the standards that unite them. The Brexit has caused the EU to shrink for the first time since its foundation, setting an example to other countries having problems with Brussels. Under the circumstances, the membership prospects of Turkey to EU seems not possible. But neither of the sides want to cut the relations and even to be the one to pronounce it first. It’s not only because of the trade between Turkey and the EU and Turkey hosting the production base of many European brands. It’s not only the key geography that Turkey holds at the juncture of many strategic transport routes. It’s not only the vital role Turkey plays for security of Europe. But it’s a combination of all imposing the necessity of Turkey and the EU, Turkey and the West in general to stay anchored to each other. For example those who thought the Turkish U.S. relations are coming to a point of no return until a few weeks ago, especially when some senators has asked the administration to exclude Turkey from the joint production of the F-35 jet fighters are surprised to see that first two batch were delivered to Turkish Air Forces on June 21. Also when Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu announced that, as they had agreed with the U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo about the withdrawal of the YPG from the Syrian town of Manbij would start on July 4. They might be surprised more when they see Turkey as a part of a new NATO project which is planned to be on the table in the coming Summit on July 11-12. Actually both the West and Turkey have seen that the current situation is not sustainable and it is not in the advantage of neither of them. The opposition campaign carried out by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate Muharrem İnce, promoting better relations with the West for better democracy has found echo in society. And not only with the West. Almost in all opposition campaigns candidates have called for better relations with the Middle East countries starting from Syria. It seems there is a ground for fine tuning in Turkish foreign policy for a more reconciliatory line which we might witness in near future.
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