Trump-Putin Understandings on Syria: Regime Returns to South in Return for Iran Exit

  • 6/29/2018
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The Syrian regime’s offensive, with Russian aerial cover, on the southern Daraa province is part of a series of understandings between Washington and Moscow over the war-torn country, revealed western diplomatic sources to Asharq Al-Awsat. The two sides agreed to return the regime forces to the South in return for the departure of opposition factions to Idlib and Iran’s complete exit from Syria. The understandings on southern Syria will be on the agenda of the upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki on July 16. US National Security Adviser John Bolton was in Moscow on Wednesday where he met Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov ahead of next month’s Trump summit, which will be held after a NATO meeting in Brussels scheduled for July 11 and 12. Trump and Putin are expected to give priority for the formation of a government, opposition and civil society committee and for carrying out constitutional reforms to pave the way for presidential and parliamentary elections in 2021. They will also voice support for the efforts of United Nations special envoy to Syrian Staffan de Mistura to form a constitutional committee that can tackle these reforms. The current American and Russian agreement implicitly means accepting the continuation of Bashar Assad at the head of the Syrian regime despite ongoing statements opposed to his rule. The latest of these remarks came on Wednesday from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who said that there can be no peace with Assad and Iran in Syria, said the western sources. Moreover, they revealed that the European Union and majority of European countries were not at ease with the understandings reached between Washington and Moscow. They are likely to remain committed to their stance that rejects Assad’s presence and refuses to contribute to Syria’s reconstruction until a political transition is achieved there. Many countries have also expressed their doubt that Russia was willing or even capable of weakening Iran in Syria. Trump was keen to dispatch Bolton to Europe to inform his allies of his administration’s upcoming approach on Syria. This new policy was a product of a series of internal consultations, as well as discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Israeli official played a central role in convincing Putin to accept some factors of the understandings, the essence of which was the need for the Syrian regime to return to the South and weaken and later end Iran’s role in the country. Netanyahu had paid a visit to Moscow in early May. His trip was soon followed by a comprehensive Israeli strike against Iranian positions in Syria, meaning that this move was approved by the Kremlin and coordinated with the Russian Hmeimim air base in Syria. Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman declared at the time that Assad must end Iran’s presence in Syria. Contacts between Washington and Tel Aviv soon followed. They agreed to launch the regime’s military offensive on Daraa, reaching all the way to the Nassib border crossing with Jordan. Attacks on Quneitra and the western part of the de-escalation ceasefire zone would be postponed. Washington also informed opposition factions in the South that it will not intervene militarily in Daraa and Jordan announced it will not receive any Syrians fleeing the southern offensive. This American message will pressure Moscow to commit to the de-escalation zone agreement that it signed with the US and Jordan in July 2017. The message also signifies the abandonment of the opposition and commitment to arrangements between Washington, Moscow and Amman, possibly even Tel Aviv, that call for returning the regime to the South and keeping both Iran and the opposition out of the area. These American-Russian understandings are part of a wider US strategy on Syria. The western sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Trump is still committed to withdrawing his country’s troops out of northeastern Syria as soon as the ISIS terrorist groups is defeated. The organization still controls 2 percent of Syrian territory. Northeastern Syria will also be tackled by Trump and Putin in Helsinki where they will address the non-engagement agreement between their troops. Ankara may likely enter the picture after it returned in Washington’s good favor as demonstrated in the recent deal on the northeastern Syrian city of Manbij. The sources stated, however, that question marks still remain over the opposition-held Idlib province and the fate of Turkish forces there. Ankara has stated that it wanted to keep its influence there and northern Syria for the long-term.

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