The first signs that everything was not running smoothly in India-US ties came at the end of a meeting that President Donald Trump had with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the ASEAN summit in Manila last November. Although the Indian media hyped up the meeting as another key milestone in Indo-US ties and as proof of how relations were improving rapidly due to the personal chemistry between Modi and Trump, the outcome of the meeting left a lot to be desired. Rather unusually, India’s diplomats kept away from specific details of the discussion and the outcome of the meeting, while the US statement also talked in generic terms about strengthening ties between the two nations. But a clear sign of trouble emerged earlier this year, in January, when the US unilaterally called off a key meeting between the two countries’ foreign and defense ministers. The meeting was canceled abruptly and no reason was given. This format of meeting had been agreed to during the June 2017 summit between Modi and Trump. The slide continued in February, when a video, where Trump mocked Modi, was leaked to the US media. Trump had complained to Modi about the high import duties imposed by India on US products and, even though Modi had offered to cut the duties on iconic Harley-Davidson motorcycles from 75 to 50 percent, Trump was clearly less than happy. Strategic and defense relations between the two nations seem to have fallen hostage to the tensions over trade. Though India has been keen on buying advanced defense technologies and products from the US, there has been little progress, as the not-so-positive developments in general trade ties seem to take center stage. India has also gotten caught up in the wave of import duties that the Trump administration is imposing on a wide variety of products from several nations, including China, the EU, Canada and Mexico. Though fewer Indian products have been targeted, India retaliated by targeting key US exports, including the Harley-Davidson bikes. Within a few days of the Indian reaction, the US once again called off the two-plus-two meeting that had been scheduled for early July in Washington, leading to red faces in the Indian External Affairs Ministry. No reason behind the postponement was given publicly, with the US statement simply saying that Modi knew of the reason behind the change, while India maintained a stoic silence on the factors at play. Though India tried to downplay the significance of this rescheduling, it is clear that all is not well between New Delhi and Washington. As the relationship with the US has appeared to hit some roadblocks, both in defense and commerce, India is now working overtime to repair its ties with China and Russia. Ranvir S. Nayar The US has also been warning India about its crude oil imports from Iran, which is its third-largest supplier behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. During a visit last week, US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley again bluntly told India to reduce its oil imports from Tehran to zero by November or face sanctions. The sudden and unexpected cooling of ties with the US has left the Modi government in a bind. Over the last two years, New Delhi has invested a lot of its political and strategic capital in developing a special relationship with Washington, often at the cost of its relations with other nations, notably China and Russia. Perhaps egged on by its seemingly strong ties with the US, India has taken a very aggressive tone toward Beijing — politically and strategically as well as militarily. India has not only refused to join in Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s pet project, the One Belt One Road Initiative, but it has also openly criticized China as a threat to regional peace and strategic stability. The Indian defense forces have engaged in a blinking contest with the Chinese army in the Doklam region of neighboring Bhutan. Doklam is located in a very strategic tri-section, where the borders of India, China and Bhutan meet, and New Delhi was worried about the Chinese army building a road right up to the border. Last year’s standoff was the closest that the two armies have come to a conflict since the 1962 war, in which Indian forces were caught totally off-guard by the Red Army. India’s growing proximity to the US also came at a price for its historic and clearly more reliable ties with Moscow. As Modi reached into a tighter embrace with Trump, India seemed to be ignoring its relations with Russia, traditionally its largest defense supplier. For Russia and China, India’s new-found coziness with the US was also alarming due to the deteriorating ties between them and the US, and the often untempered outbursts by Trump. They saw India becoming a pivot of the US in the region. Also, Russia’s ties with China have been improving steadily over the years and, in a worrying sign for India, Moscow has also signed defense cooperation agreements with arch-rival Pakistan. India has also been extremely critical of Chinese maneuvers in the Indian Ocean, especially in the neighboring nations of Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Myanmar, leaving India feeling encircled by Chinese installations in an area it regards as its backyard. However, as the relationship with the US has appeared to hit some roadblocks, both in defense and commerce, India is now working overtime to repair its ties with China and Russia. Modi has been to China twice in the last two months and both nations have committed to resolving all the outstanding issues peacefully and further boosting their commercial ties. In a bid to mollify Russia, India announced a long-pending deal for the purchase of S-400 missiles from Moscow and signed seven deals in defense cooperation during the Indian defense exhibition in Chennai. To top it all, Modi traveled to the Russian resort town of Sochi for an informal summit with Vladimir Putin, scheduled at short notice in May, and reiterated the historically strong ties between the two nations. The two leaders agreed to meet again later this year, on the occasion of the 19th annual India-Russia summit. Though India may have managed to secure itself with China and Russia, its foreign policy clearly needs to be rebalanced in order to avoid future mishaps. Ranvir S. Nayar is managing editor of Media India Group, a global platform based in Europe and India, which encompasses publishing, communication, and consultation services. Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view
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