The Turkish flag fluttering on the outskirts of the Syrian village of al-Surman has been seen by residents as a shield against regime attack since Turkish troops arrived in February. But their fears of an offensive are growing. The entire population of al-Surman fled the village in January during the last big government attack in the area that is situated in rebel-held territory near the frontline with regime forces in the northwestern Idlib region. Some came back when the bombardment stopped. But most only returned once the Turks arrived to set up an observation post at its grain silos under an agreement between Turkey, Russia and Iran. The seven-year-long conflict may be about to pivot again to the northwest now that Bashar Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, has crushed the rebellion across much of the rest of the country. Assad has indicated Idlib could be his next target. Displaced Syrians have poured into Idlib from other parts of the country recovered by Assad. The United Nations has warned that up to 2.5 million people could flee towards the Turkish border in such a scenario. This possibility is sounding alarm bells in Turkey, which is already hosting 3.5 million Syrian refugees and fears a government offensive would drive yet more over its border. Turkish forces have deployed at 12 observation posts in the Idlib region under the agreement reached with Russia and Iran in the Kazakh capital of Astana. Under this agreement, Idlib is considered a "de-escalation" zone. "We are awaiting conferences in the coming weeks to know Idlibs fate," Khaled Daimes, a 33-year-old factory owner told Reuters. "We can only feel at ease when the guarantees come from the Turks," he said. "I hope to see the Turks in the village square." He wants to see Turkish forces deploy into Idlib in the same kind of numbers they have sent into areas north of Aleppo. Assad views the Turks as illegal occupiers and has vowed to recover "every inch" of Syria. Russias priorities, particularly its relationship with Turkey, are key to determining Idlibs fate, analysts say.