Pessimism Looms over Turkey’s Economic Plan, Lira Continues Depreciating

  • 9/21/2018
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Pessimism overshadowed the Turkish government’s medium-term plan for the economy, announced on Thursday, after it predicted reduced growth, increased unemployment rates and crippling inflation. Stoking more economic anxiety, the gloomy prospects came along with official data showing the Turkish consumer confidence index hitting a three-year low. Announced by Turkish Finance Minister Berat Albayrak at an Istanbul presser, the economic plan braces for unemployment rates to exceed 12 percent by 2019, as well as inflation reaching a harsh 21 percent by the end of 2018, compared to a current 18 percent. As growth rates retract, the Turkish lira will face higher pressures. The currency had already lost 42 percent of its value since the beginning of 2018. Data showed growth falling to 3.8 percent in 2018 from over 7 percent in 2017. Staggeringly, growth rates are expected to dwindle down to 2.3 percent in 2019. The figures are revised down from a previous and hopeful forecast that estimated a 5.5 percent growth. Albayrak outlined three main bases for his countrys new economic program, saying they are “balance, discipline and change.” “We set growth targets for the new economic program at 3.8 percent for 2018, 2.3 percent for 2019, 3.5 percent for 2020 and 5 percent for 2021,” he said. Also the son-in-law of President Reccep Tayyip Erdogan, Albayrak pointed out that Turkeys inflation targets for the new program are set at 20.8 percent for 2018, 15.9 percent for 2019, 9.8 percent for 2020 and 6 percent for 2021. He added that the government’s aim is to incrementally lower the budget deficit to GDP ratio to 1.9 percent in 2018, 1.8 percent in 2019, 1.9 percent in 2020 and 1.7 percent in 2021. Objectives for the new economic program will be achieved in the next three years, Albayrak said. He revealed the establishment of an office to monitor implementation of measures and to cut expenditure and increase income. Unemployment target rates for the new economic program are set at 11.3 percent for 2018, 12.1 percent 2019, 11.9 percent for 2020 and 10.8 percent for 2021, Albayrak said. Albayrak also suggested that Turkey is also heading towards restructuring current crediting systems and the Turkish real estate affairs. Meanwhile, Turkish data agencies said that the average consumer confidence index in the economy fell to 59.3 points in September, its lowest level in 3 years. Data showed poverty rates and personal debts of Turkish individuals are ominously on the rise.

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