At this month’s Tehran summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly differed about the next steps relating to Syria’s Idlib. While Erdogan wanted more time to pursue a peace settlement with the militants based there, Putin curtly rejected this option and favored immediate military action against the “terrorists.” Still, Russia and Iran agreed to give Turkey a final opportunity to rid the city of its 90,000 militants, including 15,000 who are members of the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat Al-Nusra. The details of this agreement were finalized at Sochi on Sept. 17 after a five-hour meeting between Erdogan and Putin. Turkey backs opposition groups in Syria under the banner of the National Liberation Front (NLF), which is made up of Arabs and Turkmen, as a counterweight to the Syrian Kurds, and is anxious to ensure they are not annihilated in a full-scale government assault on Idlib. Erdogan views the Kurds — organized with US support as the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing, the People’s Protection Units (YPG) — as terrorists and the principal threat to Turkey’s security. To contain the Kurds, Turkish troops control some 4,000 kilometers of Syrian territory in the north. Putin has reversed the position he took at Tehran and accommodated Erdogan’s concerns. He is seeking to take advantage of the increasing divide between Turkey and the US and retain the Turkish leader on his side in the convoluted Syrian imbroglio. On the same day as the Sochi agreement was finalized, Israeli aircraft, which have been routinely bombing Syria over the last two years, escalated matters by apparently using a Russian military aircraft as a shield while carrying out missile attacks near Latakia. This caused Syrian retaliatory ground fire to hit the Russian aircraft, killing 15 personnel. The Sochi agreement and the Israeli action have created fresh uncertainties about the political outlook for Syria, particularly the future of the Russia-centric regional alliances that have maintained a modicum of stability in that war-torn country. The Sochi agreement provides for the setting up of a 15 to 20 kilometer-wide buffer zone along the Turkish border by Oct. 15 that would separate rebel-held territory in Idlib from Syrian government forces and would be jointly patrolled by Turkish and Russian forces. Turkey will have the responsibility of separating the “moderate” opposition from extremist elements, including Jabhat Al-Nusra. This process is to be completed by early December. Putin has said that, by December, the Aleppo-Latakia and Aleppo-Hama highways, serving Idlib, will become functional. By Oct. 10, all militants will have to surrender their heavy weapons, including tanks, mortars and artillery. They will then have the option of joining the “moderate” opposition, the NLF, or leaving Idlib. Those who wish to retain their weapons and remain in the city will be subjected to targeted assaults. In preparation for this initiative, Ankara has closed its borders to the north and west of Idlib to prevent extremists from crossing into Turkey. Extremist forces control 60 percent of Idlib and separating moderates from extremists will be difficult. While some extremists could merge with mainstream opposition groups as a tactical ploy, the hardcore radicals are not likely to surrender. Jabhat Al-Nusra members have refused to give up their weapons and there are also concerns that some extremists could sneak into Turkey and carry out retaliatory terrorist operations. Pro-government commentators are convinced that the Turkish initiative will fail and that, however distasteful they might be, military operations, backed by Russian air support, are inevitable. The downing of the Russian aircraft during an Israeli attack on Syria has created uncertainties about Russia-Israel ties that have been close and cordial. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said that Israel bears “full responsibility” for the attack, although Putin has attempted to defuse the situation by saying it was caused by a “chain of tragic chance events.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu phoned Putin and offered to provide “all necessary information,” while blaming Syria. Officially, Israel has expressed sorrow at the deaths of the Russian personnel but offered no apology, reiterating that “extensive and inaccurate Syrian anti-aircraft fire” hit the Russian plane after its own jets had returned home. Russian officials have rejected the Israeli protestations and have blamed Tel Aviv’s “irresponsible actions” for the incident. They have demanded that a “more serious investigation” be conducted. Regional commentators have noted how, so far, Russia has quietly tolerated numerous Israeli attacks in Syria. Though there will be some constraints on Israel’s attacks on Syria in the short run and Russia will boost Syria’s capabilities with the S-300 missile system, Israel is unlikely to be deterred from future attacks on Syrian and Iranian targets. Again, Russia-Israel ties are not likely to be adversely affected since their regional interests are closely intertwined: Israel needs Russia to contain the Iranian presence in Syria, while Israel is important for Russia to consolidate its role in Middle East affairs and stabilize its trouble spots. As the Idlib scenario reaches its final stages, a comprehensive settlement in Syria has become even more urgent. Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian diplomat who holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies, Symbiosis International University, Pune, India. 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