Obstacles to forming a new Lebanese Cabinet

  • 10/8/2018
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A copy of a knotted-gun sculpture, which has become an emblem for peace in the world, was unveiled in Beirut this week, in an area where buildings still carry the scars of the civil war that destroyed Lebanon between 1975 and 1990. The work of art is a reminder to all Lebanese that their country is still at risk of sliding back into communal strife, and even total war, unless solutions are quickly found for Lebanon’s many ills. The basic most essential is an executive that could shoulder the country’s many political, economic and environmental challenges. The nominated Prime Minister Saad Hariri said he is still optimistic about forming a new government soon. No one knows the source of his optimism, since he and the country have been waiting for more than five months for a regional veto to be removed so new ministers can get selected and the government can get the blessing of Parliament to start work. Many believe that the election of a president, prime minister and parliamentary speaker in Iraq indicates that maybe the road will soon be open for the formation of the long-awaited Lebanese government too. But Beirut is not Baghdad. Despite the precarious nature of US-Iranian coexistence in Iraq, it managed to install four governments and prime ministers there since the removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003. No doubt this came as a direct result of the mood shift in Iraq, and the many protests against corruption, economic failure, and the inability of the Tehran-supported political class to deliver basic services to citizens. Iraq’s political, tribal and religious elites seem to have maneuvered their way, in the short term at least, into pushing aside hard-line pro-Iran Iraqi leaders. In Lebanon, Hariri is maybe hoping that domestic and regional obstacles could also be removed for his new Cabinet to be formed. In the five months since the May election, which produced a Parliament tilted in favor of the Iran-backed Shiite Hezbollah movement, Hariri has said a number of times that he was optimistic that there would soon be a breakthrough. Lebanon needs a proper government to undertake reforms needed to improve the sustainability of its debt. Mohamed Chebaro The main sticking point in negotiations has been seen domestically as how to satisfy the competing demands of Maronite Christian President Michel Aoun and his Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) on the one hand, and their Maronite rival Samir Geagea and his Lebanese Forces party on the other. Regionally, Hariri has suffered from unreasonable demands made by pro-Damascus and Iran-backed Lebanese groups to be represented in his new Cabinet in a way that reflects the new geostrategic positioning of the ‘victorious’ regimes in Damascus and Tehran, at the expense of supporters of the Syrian opposition. Lebanon’s last government has continued as a caretaker administration since the May election, but the country needs a proper government to undertake reforms needed to improve the sustainability of Lebanon’s debt. So Hariri’s optimism might also be linked to regional geostrategic calculations whereby Tehran is minded to show some leniency in Iraq and maybe Lebanon prior to suffering the full brunt of the reinstatement of US sanctions on Iran’s oil industry in early November. This would be in the hope of showing that Iran is still a key broker, and could facilitate as well as hinder political settlements is several Arab countries. If Hezbollah gives the go ahead for the formation of a new Hariri government, the road will be paved to form an administration that is needed to reschedule Lebanon’s ballooning debt, revive the economy and find a solution to the country’s power supply shortage. There is also an urgent need to find a solution to Lebanon’s garbage collection and processing problems. Unlike other countries in the region, the election of a president, and the nomination and formation of a government in post-civil war Lebanon, have been subject to veto by the neighboring Syrian regime. But since the start of the Syrian revolution in 2011, this veto-wielding power has been transferred to Iran and Hezbollah. Tehran, with the help of Shiite Lebanese and Shiite Iraqi militias, has propped up the Syrian regime. The pro-Iran faction has emerged as the strongest in Lebanon, so it has requested a sizeable chunk of seats in Hariri’s next Cabinet. The formation of a new Cabinet in Lebanon has long been outstanding, and the positive signals from Hariri could serve as a reminder to everyone in the country and outside it that the clock is ticking. Lebanon needs a government urgently if its people are to be spared more economic hardship and other suffering due to a lack of basic services that could see the country become a failed state that no one could help afterward. Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer. Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view

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