Collaboration not competition required as globalization at a crossroads

  • 12/21/2018
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Whether or not one realizes it, 2018 may have been a historic turning point. Poorly managed globalization has led to nationalist “take back control” movements and a rising wave of protectionism that is undermining the 70-year-old US-led international order. The stage is set for China to develop its own parallel international institutions, auguring a world divided between two competing global governance systems. Whatever happens in the next few years, it is already clear that the decade to 2018 marked an epochal shift in the balance of economic power. When I chaired the G20 London summit at the height of the global financial crisis, North America and Europe comprised around 15 percent of the world’s population, but accounted for 57 percent of total economic activity, 61 percent of investment, around 50 percent of manufacturing, and 61 percent of global consumer spending. But the world’s economic center of gravity has shifted since then. Whereas around 40 percent of production, manufacturing, trade and investment was located outside the West in 2008, more than 60 percent is today. Some analysts predict that Asia will account for 50 percent of global economic output by 2050. True, China’s per capita income might still be less than half that of the US in 2050, but the sheer size of the Chinese economy will nonetheless raise new questions about global governance and geopolitics.

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