There is never a good time to start an arms race, but for Europe the news of the suspension of a nuclear arms treaty could not have come at a worse time. Europe is already in deep paroxysms and uncertainty over the way Brexit is lurching ahead blindly. To add to it, the famous Franco-German engine that gives direction and power to the EU has become entirely dysfunctional since the election of Emmanuel Macron as president of France and the severe setbacks suffered by Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany. The two leaders share a relationship that seems almost cold in comparison with the ties between earlier heads of the two nations, right from the end of the Second World War, nearly 75 years ago. Thus, the announcement by the Trump administration that it will back out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty unless Russia urgently mends its ways has come like a bolt from the blue for an EU that has been bitterly divided, listless and directionless for several years now. The INF Treaty, signed in 1987 by then-US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, put an end to the testing and deployment of land-based nuclear-tipped missiles with ranges of between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The treaty had come as a big relief to Europe, as the ban meant that the entire European territory was literally free of NATO and Warsaw Pact forces’ nuclear missiles targeting each other. In many ways it signaled the end of the Cold War in the European theater. The two sides went on to not just pull back the missiles from deployment, but they also carried out the large-scale destruction of thousands of missiles. The US says it has been forced to abandon the INF Treaty as the Russians have been violating it consistently, having developed numerous missiles that fall under the limits of the treaty and hence should be destroyed. Washington is particularly worried about the 9M729 missile that the Russians have developed and deployed as a key part of their strategic plans, especially since the development and modernization of their conventional weapons has not kept pace with the NATO forces or even China. Over 100 such missiles are believed to have been deployed by Russia just east of the Urals and also near the Caspian Sea, upsetting the US as these missiles have the entirety of Europe within their range. The US is also upset that many other countries that have not signed the INF Treaty, notably China, but also Iran, Pakistan and India, have developed a large arsenal of missiles precisely in the 500 to 5,500-kilometer range, leaving the US and NATO as outsiders in this game. Hence, Washington is keen to get back into this segment to complement its missile forces. While the US may have its reasons to ditch the treaty, the Europeans don’t share the same vision and, more significantly, they won’t experience the same implications of the INF Treaty being scrapped. Thirty years on from the signing of the treaty, a lot has changed on the ground in Europe. The Warsaw Pact has disappeared and most of the former members of this pact are either members of NATO or the EU or both. A return to the Cold War or any other war for that matter is definitely anathema to the millennials of the EU, as well as to broader public opinion and several governments. Also, the Europe of today is heavily divided, with many countries adopting a rather harsh stance against Russia, while there remains a fair amount of noises for engaging Moscow in talks instead. While the US may have its reasons to ditch the treaty, the Europeans don’t share the same vision and, more significantly, they won’t experience the same implications of the INF Treaty being scrapped. Ranvir S. Nayar Leaders in countries like Poland and even Hungary and the Baltic states would actually be happy to have the US missiles back on their territory as they fear being the first in line of any possible Russian attack and, hence, they remain vulnerable. But other nations, notably Germany, the largest member of the EU, is less than keen on having any missiles, let alone nuclear weapons, in its backyard. With the rapid rise of the Green Party, which is fiercely anti-nuclear, the German people and the government would be reluctant to see a return to the Cold War scenario. Another big challenge for Europe is the weakening of the Franco-German alliance that has so far guided and given strength to the EU, not just in its enlargement but also in deepening intra-EU ties. However, Merkel and Macron just don’t get along and have a very different view of crucial issues, including in strengthening the EU’s own defense capabilities. Both leaders are currently busy peddling their own versions of creating a joint European defense force that can either supplement or even entirely replace the national armies of different member states. A bigger challenge for the EU member states in boosting their defense capabilities is that their military spending is far below the mark of 2 percent of gross domestic product that NATO has set as a benchmark, and which almost all countries currently miss, often by a wide margin. If EU leaders cannot quickly agree on a common strategy to respond to the US position on INF, or convince the Americans to use other means of getting the Russians to toe the line, it is very likely that US President Donald Trump will go ahead and tear up the treaty, meaning the EU will be pulled closer to a renewed Cold War. Ranvir S. Nayar is managing editor of the Media India Group, a global platform based in Europe and India that encompasses publishing, communication and consultation services. Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view