US cannot reset ties with Russia post-Mueller report

  • 4/27/2019
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With the outcome of the long-awaited publication of the Mueller report about allegations of Russian meddling in the US electoral system, many are wondering if a shift in US-Russian relations might be on the cards. After all, the report says the investigation did not prove that any members of the Trump campaign “conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.” Without the investigation hanging over the White House, it is argued, the Trump administration can now reset relations with Russia. The chairman of the international relations committee in Russia’s Federation Council (the upper house of Parliament), Konstantin Kosachyov, commented on the outcome of the investigation: “There’s a chance to renew much in our relations, but the question is whether (US President Donald) Trump will take the risk.” This is wishful thinking, and the report’s findings are not quite so straightforward. But Kosachyov is right on one point: Trump would be taking a risk reaching out to Moscow. There are three reasons why, under the current circumstances, it would be very risky for Trump to use the Mueller report as an excuse to extend an olive branch to the Kremlin. Firstly, the report does nothing to change the geopolitical reality on the ground in places such as Syria, Ukraine and the South Caucasus. Many of the problems the US has with Russia today stem from the latter’s belligerent actions in these places. It should not be forgotten that Russia occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s internationally recognized territory, props up Bashar Assad and facilitates his killing machine in the Syrian civil war, and illegally occupies Crimea and persecutes the Muslim Tatars living there. There is no sign that the situation in Ukraine is improving. The 24 Ukrainian sailors abducted by Russia in international waters last November are still unlawfully detained in a Moscow prison.Russia also provides diplomatic cover for Iran so the latter can pursue its nuclear program and circumvent economic sanctions. The Mueller report does nothing to change these or other geopolitical challenges facing the US-Russian relationship. Secondly, the outcome of the report could arguably have the opposite effect of those that Kosachyov hopes for, and make bilateral ties frostier. Although the investigation proved that the Trump campaign had not “conspired or coordinated” with Russian intelligence, the report offers page after page of evidence of Russian interference in the US electoral process. Russian meddling in the 2016 election was a fact well-known by many before the release of the report, which should now be proof for those who are skeptical about Russia’s actions. The report states: “The Russian government interfered in the 2016 presidential election in sweeping and systematic fashion.” The investigation has also led to the indictment of 26 Russians and three Russian companies for, among other things, hacking into the Democratic Party’s servers. So it is hard to see how US policymakers, regardless of which political party, could seriously entertain the idea of a rapprochement with Russia after what has been brought to light by the Mueller report. Finally, while overtures for better relations with the US have been made by some Russian officials, it is unlikely that President Vladimir Putin would seriously pursue that. In fact, his most recent actions suggest the exact opposite. Just 72 hours after the election of Volodymyr Zelenskiy as Ukraine’s next president, Putin signed a decree stating that Ukrainians living in the parts of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions that are under the control of Moscow-backed separatists can be issued with Russian passports. This is clearly an affront to Ukrainian sovereignty and a test for the president-elect. Coming on the heels of the Mueller report being published, this cavalier decision by Moscow to issue passports to Ukrainian citizens also shows that those at the very top of the Kremlin are not open to better relations with the West. The starting point for improving US-Russian relations is not found in Washington but in Moscow. Bilateral ties are unlikely to improve in any meaningful way until Putin loses power, and this seems unlikely any time soon. Since coming to power in 1999, he has done everything he can to undermine the interests of the US and its allies. He simply cannot be a trustworthy partner for the US. Because of his constitutional gymnastics, he has been able to serve as prime minister or president since 1999, and he can remain in either one of these positions for as long as he lives. Even with all the collusion hysteria during the Mueller investigation, Trump has pursued some of the toughest policies against Russia since Ronald Reagan. There is no reason to suspect this will change. The Trump administration has been able to learn in its first term what his two predecessors were only able to learn in their second: A tough line is needed when dealing with Moscow. Thankfully, the Mueller report will not change .this

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