World Bank Expects GCC Economic Growth to Accelerate to 3.2% in 2020

  • 5/4/2019
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The World Bank expected economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region to increase to 3.2 percent next year and stabilize at 2.7 percent in 2021. In its biannual report, “Building the foundations for economic sustainability: Human capital and growth in the GCC,” released in Abu Dhabi, the World Bank expected the economic growth in the Gulf to increase from 2 percent last year to 2.1 percent in 2019. The report commended the ongoing reforms made towards improving the business environment in the Gulf. “However, to achieve more sustainable growth, the GCC countries need to continue supporting fiscal consolidation, economic diversification, and increasing private sector-led job creation, especially for women and young people.” The report also called for accelerating human capital formation through a holistic government strategy to improving health and education outcomes. “Working closely with the GCC, we have seen strong political will from some countries to achieve their country Vision Plans with real, tangible outcomes on the ground,” said World Bank Regional Director for the GCC Issam Abousleiman. “But economic transformation is a long-term endeavor, requiring steadfast, predictable implementation. While the road ahead is challenging, it is possible; and we are committed to taking this journey together.” According to the report, GCC states “have made steady progress on implementing major reforms to attract investors and boost competitiveness, such as easing business licenses, lowering fees, liberalizing foreign ownership, and supporting women and young entrepreneurs." “Much has been done in recent years to attract investments, especially in non-hydrocarbon sectors, and to encourage non-oil exports, such as reforming legislation and creating free trade zones with generous incentives for investors. But FDI inflows to the region have under-performed that of other emerging markets. A remaining agenda includes loosening foreign ownership of firms and reducing non-tariff barriers, in addition to business environment reforms, is already receiving high priority in many countries." In Saudi Arabia, the World Bank expected growth to reach over 3 percent in 2020 as oil production cuts are reversed, and as large infrastructure projects generate positive spillovers to private sector growth. But growth is expected to slow moderately to 1.7 percent in 2019, as “higher government spending offsets the impact of oil production cuts implemented in the first half of 2019.” It said growth in the UAE is forecast at 2.6 percent in 2019, jumping to 3 percent in 2020 as the country pushes infrastructure investments ahead of Dubai’s Expo 2020. “Economic growth is forecast to reach 3.2 percent by 2021 supported by the government’s economic stimulus plans, hosting Expo 2020, and improved growth prospects in trading partners.” In its outlook on Bahrain, the World Bank said growth is projected at 2 percent in 2019, expecting to reach 2.2 percent in 2020. “Non-oil growth is expected to slow to 2.4 percent, due to front-loaded FBP fiscal measures and tapering mega-project investments. Growth will resume in the coming years as efficiency gains from reforms materialize.” In Kuwait, growth is forecast at 1.6 percent in 2019 due to OPEC+ oil output cuts in the first half of the year. The economy is expected to grow at around 3 percent by 2020 as higher government spending supports the non-oil sector. Growth in Oman is projected to slow to 1.2 percent in 2019 as the countrys commitment to the December 2018 OPEC+ output cut constrains oil production. There will be a one-off spike in growth to 6 percent in 2020 as the government plans to significantly increase investment in the Khazzan gas field. The potential boost from the diversification investment spending would continue supporting growth in 2021 and the medium term. In Qatar, growth is expected to reach 3 percent in 2019, accelerating to 3.2 percent in 2020 and to 3.4 percent by 2021, as the country continues construction operations in preparation for the 2022 World Cup.

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