How do you solve a problem like Korea?

  • 5/5/2019
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North Korea launched a series of short-range projectiles early on Saturday into the Sea of Japan. This comes on the heels of top-level North Korean diplomacy, with two Trump-Kim summits, three inter-Korean summits, no fewer than four visits by Kim Jong Un to Beijing and a Kim-Putin summit last month. The inter-Korean diplomacy had resulted in a railway line between the North and the South, talks about jointly developing the Kaesong industrial complex and the development of the Mount Kumyang resort to make the national mountain accessible to tourists from the South. All three projects did face constraints because of UN sanctions on the hermit state. On May 1 the North allowed southern tourists back to visit Panmunjom in the demilitarized zone. So how can we reconcile the diplomacy and rapprochement between the North and the South with North Korea’s most recent provocation, which seems to bring us back to square one? In 2017 North East Asia collectively held its breath as the rhetoric between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un intensified and the latter launched more and more powerful test missiles. The use of nuclear weapons by North Korea would be devastating to North East Asia. North Korea’s neighborhood of Northeast China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan is among the most populated and highly industrialised areas in the world. Leaders in Beijing, Seoul, Korea and Taipei therefore breathed a collective sigh of relief when tensions eased ahead of the first Kim-Trump summit in Singapore in June 2018. It was certainly an achievement by Donald Trump to bring Kim to the table. Several US initiatives to engage with the North and stop its nuclear programs had failed. There was the Agreed Framework mechanism during the Clinton years, which ended with North Korea’s unilateral resignation and subsequent termination of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty in 2003. Between August 2003 and April 2009 the Obama administration tried to engage with the North in six-party talks involving the US, Japan, South and North Korea, China and Russia. This was a sensible approach in that all concerned parties were involved: The North’s traditional allies China and Russia, its nearest neighbors South Korea and Japan, and the world’s largest superpower, the United States. Each time, the chronology of events was similar. North Korea agreed to some degree of reduction in its nuclear ambitions and initially adhered to the promise. At some time the negotiations would reach an impasse and the North would ratchet up its program again until there was a point of no return. Then Kim’s father, Kim Jong Il, would walk away and resume nuclear activities. It was therefore progress when the grandson of the country’s founder, Kim Il Sung, came to the negotiating table. Talks could formally end the Korean War, hostilities having concluded with only a cease-fire agreement in 1953. North and South Korea are therefore technically still at war, which does not make Northeast Asia a safer place.The first Trump-Kim summit went well. Alas it was a rushed affair and the US administration did not cross all the “t”s and dot all the “i”s beforehand. The two leaders claimed victory, but could not agree what they had agreed upon. Their definitions of denuclearization on the Korean peninsula varied as widely as their objectives. For Kim this was about ending sanctions, obtaining access to capital and ending the US military presence on the peninsula in return for some concessions. For the Western allies (Japan South Korea and the US) it was about a total dismantling of the North’s nuclear program and activities. So it came as little surprise when the second summit failed. Trump said Kim had wanted too much, asking for the end of all sanctions in return for dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear facility — which would not constitute denuclearization according to the US definition. Kim claimed he had merely asked for the lifting of some sanctions. A classic “he said, he said” scenario. Still, the leaders parted on relatively friendly terms. Since then Kim has been busy. His visit to Russia was intelligent from his point of view. Russia is a near neighbor, an old ally and rich in natural resources, particularly oil. For Vladimir Putin, too, the visit was a no-brainer, an opportunity to reinsert Russia into the dialogue. Moscow has played its cards intelligently in the Middle East, emerging as one of the biggest winners of the conflict in Syria. This meeting was a further win for Putin on the international stage. Kim’s four pilgrimages to Beijing are testament to China’s behind-the-scenes involvement in the rapprochement between the US and the North. South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in was the mediator between Trump and Kim whenever the negotiations threatened to unravel. This makes sense as the South stands to gain from a peace dividend. Now the rockets are flying again and everyone is at a loss. Some may not like that Russia reinserted itself into the conversation and others may look skeptically at the cards Beijing is holding. However, it makes sense to have the near neighbors involved in trying to find a solution to denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, if lasting peace is the objective. South Korea, Japan China and Russia are important players without whom it may well be impossible to find a permanent solution. There is also the economic dimension: If North Korea joins the family of nations again, it will require massive investment. It would not be wise to leave the economic powerhouses of China, South Korea and Japan out of the equation. Similarly, Russia and its resource riches have a role to play as well. When the going gets tough, as it seems with the latest barrage of projectiles, the old allies, Russia China, may also be able to placate the North Korean leader. If Saturday morning proved one thing, it is that North Korea is not going to go away quietly, and that a solution is required for the sake of Northeast Asia and the world.

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