When the EU granted the UK a further Brexit extension until Oct. 31, European Council President Donald Tusk’s famous last words to Britain were “please don’t waste this time.” Yet that is precisely what is happening. There have been epic defeats of Theresa May’s Brexit deal. There have been trial and error votes in Parliament in an attempt to find some sort of consensus, but the country’s elected representatives could only agree that there should not be a no-deal Brexit, although even that motion only passed with a narrow majority. With every defeat, the support for May within her Cabinet was reduced. After the local elections in England and Wales, her position became untenable: She had led her Conservative Party to a historic defeat. Last week, it was finally clear that she had to immediately announce when she would resign or she would be forced out. The compromise was that she would quit on June 7, after US President Donald Trump has concluded his state visit. The leadership contest will start on June 10 and is expected to run for about six weeks. The field will be whittled down to two candidates by Tory MPs before a winner will be chosen by the Conservative Party membership, which is 160,000-strong, mainly white, mainly aged over 55, mainly pro-Brexit, and lives predominantly in the southeast of the country — hardly a representative cross-section of the population. The coup de grace was delivered on Wednesday night, when Andrea Leadsom, the Leader of the House of Commons, resigned from the Cabinet on the grounds that, as a committed Brexiteer, she could not agree with the PM’s latest Brexit plan, in which she had conceded the possibility of a second referendum. Up until about a week earlier, May had always categorically rejected holding such a vote. On Friday, shortly after 10am, May announced her resignation against the backdrop of the iconic black door of 10 Downing Street, the prime minister’s official residence. Fellow politicians were quick to praise the outgoing PM’s dignity amid her emotional resignation (May’s reputation had been built on the proverbial British stiff upper lip, which never shows emotion, much less tears). Minutes later, the same politicians came out of the woodwork, announcing their candidacies for the highest political position in the land. Boris Johnson had been there even before May’s resignation and, as of Sunday morning, the count stood at eight and rising. The fault line is Brexit. Five — Johnson, Leadsom, Dominic Raab, Esther McVey and Michael Gove — are committed Brexiteers, while Jeremy Hunt, Rory Stewart and Matt Hancock all campaigned to stay in the EU in 2016 but have now promised to respect the referendum result.Raab, May’s second Brexit Secretary, has so far been the only candidate to announce a political program and a vision for the country beyond Brexit. Many of the Brexiteers say that, while they would prefer to leave the EU in an orderly fashion, they will ensure the UK leaves on Oct. 31 — deal or no deal. Some of them are confident that they can renegotiate with the EU, ignoring the multiple warnings from the powers that be in Brussels that the withdrawal agreement is not up for renegotiation. The candidates and their supporters spent Saturday morning attacking each other on national TV. In other words, the UK is in for a tumultuous few weeks. Nobody seems to have heeded Tusk’s warning to use the time up to Oct. 31 wisely. Where did May go wrong? She essentially made three mistakes: Two early on and a third toward the end of her tenure. Firstly, because May voted for remain in the referendum, she overcompensated by accommodating the Brexiteers in her party with all the verve of a convert. Hence she entangled herself in a myriad of red lines way too early. She failed to see that she would never get the uber-Brexiteer European Research Group, which includes up to about 80 Conservative MPs, on her side. Secondly, she called an election in the spring of 2017 in order to strengthen her hand. That plan backfired. The Conservatives lost their majority and she could only form a government with the help of the conservative Democratic Unionist Party. That proved to be tricky, as they would never agree to any measure that treated Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the union, as the famous “backstop” did. Lastly, she reached across the aisle too late. She did not consult with opposition parties to see whether she could find a cross-party majority for any deal. By the time she started her talks with Labour, it was too late. She was so weakened within her party that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who wants a new election, would never “help her out.” May looked increasingly desperate. Where does this leave the country? Assuming there is a new prime minister in situ before the summer recess in July, he or she will have to form a new government, go on summer holiday and then only start dealing with Brexit in September. That will leave less than two months to get a deal done. In other words, a no-deal Brexit looks increasingly likely. We should also not forget that, as of the beginning of July, there will be a new European Parliament in place. Its composition is bound to differ considerably from what we are used to. On Oct. 31, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker will step down and, on Nov. 30, it will be Tusk’s turn. Europe is tired of Brexit, which has been all-consuming for the last three years. The “new brooms” may well want to sweep the Brexit nuisance away and move on — deal or no-deal. In Britain, the next prime minister will face heavy criticism because he or she was only selected by Conservative MPs and the 160,000-strong party membership, which is not representative. The Brexit fault lines in Parliament will not have changed and the political discourse will probably become even more acrimonious. A general election before 2022 may become a necessity and the traditional parties, the Conservatives and Labour, are bound to fare badly. Meanwhile, business leaders are tearing their hair out because they need clarity. True or not, the recent poor financial results of airline Ryanair and holiday company Tui were blamed on the Brexit impasse, as was the insolvency of British Steel. What will matter to ordinary Britons is that Westminster finds a solution to the Brexit conundrum that provides them with a framework that will not adversely affect their livelihoods or, even worse, lose them their jobs.
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