The year 2019 marks a number of key anniversaries in the history of modern China. It is 30 years since the protest by students in Tiananmen Square, 60 years since the Chinese occupied Tibet, and 100 years since the first anti-imperialist demonstrations, again by students, that laid the foundations for communist rule. But the most significant event on this year’s calendar falls on Oct. 1 — the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China following the victory by Mao Zedong’s forces over Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang, after which the latter fled to Taiwan. President Xi Jinping, arguably the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao, perhaps even more powerful than Mao, has a number of important events lined up to commemorate the dawn of communist rule in the country, with the culmination of a commemoration of several global leaders designed to illustrate China’s and Xi’s clout in the modern world. A few weeks ago, as part of the celebrations, Xi — accompanied, notably, by Russian President Vladimir Putin — attended a huge naval display that showed off the might of the Chinese Navy on the 70th anniversary of its founding. The navies of nearly a dozen nations, including rivals India and Vietnam, joined in the parade, which left little doubt about China’s growing capacity to rival the US Navy in the region. Xi has other reasons to celebrate. Just last year, the Chinese Parliament removed term limits on the presidency, clearing the way for him to remain in power for as long as he wants, or is able to. This is an indication of the power he holds, not only as president but also as head of the Communist Party. Hence, Xi will be extremely wary of any sign of weakness in China’s global position — or indeed in his grip over the country at this crucial moment. He has had a few problems to deal with already. The Chinese economy, for example, which has been slowing down for the past few years, has been hit surprisingly hard by the high-stakes trade war unleashed by US President Donald Trump. Even though Xi wields total and unparalleled authority in China, his position could become vulnerable surprisingly easily if things start to go wrong for China, domestically or internationally. Therefore, the unprecedented protests in Hong Kong last week must have unnerved Xi and his team. They were prompted by the announcement of a proposed law that would allow extraditions from Hong Kong to the mainland. Hong Kong residents not only view this as a threat to Hong Kong’s increasingly delicate status as a self-governed territory, but are also concerned that it could be used by China to silence critics of the government and stifle freedom of expression. For a man who has carefully curated the communist party to gain unprecedented power, Xi is hardly likely to keel over and surrender in face of demonstrators in Hong Kong. Ranvir S. Nayar Since taking control of the territory from the UK in 1997, China has been chipping away at Hong Kong’s independence and has managed to get away with most of its measures, albeit one at a time. However, Hong Kongers have grown increasingly anxious about their status over the past few years, as several steps taken by China have tightened the communist party’s stranglehold over life in the city. For example, the mysterious disappearance four years ago of five employees of a Hong Kong bookshop that sold publications banned on the mainland caused concern. The worst fears of their families were confirmed when it became clear that they had been abducted by the Chinese authorities, taken to the mainland and imprisoned. The efforts by China to fully absorb Hong Kong seem to have picked up pace in the past couple of years. A landmark event was the inauguration of a $20 billion bridge that stretches for about 52 km over land and sea, connecting Hong Kong and Macau to the mainland. This project was not viewed as a sign of Chinese engineering prowess, but more effectively as a sign that the former British colony was being held in an ever-tightening embrace by China, further weakening the “one country, two systems” promise made by China when it took control of Hong Kong from the UK 22 years ago. Another clear sign of China’s strategy was evident during the local elections for the Hong Kong government two years ago. The Chinese government mandated that only candidates it had pre-approved could contest the elections, effectively removing from the field a large number of pro-democracy candidates determined to protect Hong Kong’s special status. Despite weeks-long protests by thousands of residents demanding the rules be changed, the communist party stuck to its guns, thereby showing who is really in charge of the territory and its governance. It is in this context that the significance of last week’s demonstrations, during which nearly a third of Hong Kong’s 6 million residents took to the streets to protest against the extradition bill, becomes evident. To many of them, such a law would signal the end of even the pretense of independence and the “one country, two systems” pledge. The subsequent U-turn by the Hong Kong authorities — most notably Carrie Lam, the territory’s Beijing-appointed chief executive, who promised to put the bill on hold — is indeed a rare victory for democrats and a setback for Xi and his nominees. However, it is clear that Beijing ordered Lam to suspend the bill only to gain time and calm the protesters. Xi is clearly betting on the protests running out of steam and fading away — as have many other protests in Hong Kong and on the mainland. Strong and swift action against the ringleaders of the unrest is also highly likely, not only to put an end to the demonstrations but also to remind the people of Hong Kong, and indeed the rest of the country, who is in charge. For a man who has carefully curated the communist party to gain unprecedented power, Xi is hardly likely to keel over and surrender in face of demonstrators in Hong Kong. Indeed, he might use the chaos of the protests as an excuse to declare an emergency and dispense with all pretense of democracy or independence in Hong Kong.