Israel’s long, hot summer of electoral maneuvers

  • 6/23/2019
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No Israeli politician expected to spend the hot summer days preparing for new round of elections, only two months after going through the gruelling process of campaigning, with or without gloves, and then waiting for the electorate’s verdict. But faced with a result that produced deadlock, they must now go through the whole procedure again. The losers far outnumbered the winners of the April poll, and there is little time and space to make any profound changes before voting on September 17. However, a pattern is emerging in which Avigdor Lieberman, head of Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home), is setting — some might argue hijacking — the public agenda. From the minute he smelt blood (Netanyahu’s) and prevented his onetime political ally-turned-nemesis from forming a coalition, he has attempted to fashion himself as the defender of Israeli secularism. He is a most unlikely and unsuitable champion of liberal-democratic secularism; a settler who supports the deportation of Israeli-Palestinians, a brute and a demagogue who presides over a party mired in corruption, he is hardly the natural champion of such values. In putting the draft of ultraorthodox youth into the military at the centre of public debate, Lieberman hopes to gain enough support beyond his traditional core of former immigrants from the Soviet Union, and thus, come September, to be the kingmaker. At least for electioneering purposes, his call for a coalition of the two biggest parties, Likud and Blue and White, leaving the religious parties outside the government, is attractive. Yet there is a subtext, known to all, that the leaders of Blue and White, Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid, repeatedly promised their supporters that they would not participate in a government led by Netanyahu because of his indictment on corruption charges. This is a message to Likud that they are better off without their current leader, and ought to start searching for one who will be palatable to the centrist parties. Sara Netanyahu has already been convicted and fined for criminal misuse of public funds, while her husband is demanding that the authorities allow him to receive funds from friends to pay for his legal expenses. But hang on — isn’t taking gifts from friends what got him into hot water in the first place? If the religious-secular and Lieberman-Netanyahu dog and pony shows have taken center stage in Israeli politics, there are many more plots and subplots. The Right must get over being so close to, yet failing, to form a coalition government. Can they regroup in time? Mainly, can the religious-Zionist parties, whose split cost them a number of seats in the Knesset, overcome personal animosities and present at least a superficially united front? Logic dictates this will happen, but raw emotions may yet confound it. Former justice minister Ayelet Sheked, in a natural move after the failure of the New Right party she formed with Naftali Bennet, would like to join Likud, especially since she is popular with the party’s grassroots. However, both Sheked and Bennet are persona non grata with the prime minister and his wife. Both Netanyahus are currently preoccupied with their legal difficulties. Sara Netanyahu has already been convicted and fined for criminal misuse of public funds, while her husband is demanding that the authorities allow him to receive funds from friends to pay for his legal expenses. But hang on — isn’t taking gifts from friends what got him into hot water in the first place? It is not only the right that is struggling with the outcome of April’s elections — everyone is. For Blue and White, an alliance of parties, the first task is to keep that alliance intact despite deep ideological differences. It remains to be seen if the party can consolidate its standing among voters, or even increase it. They, as do many of the parties to the left of them, lack leadership, ideas, direction, and competence to govern, all of which would distinguish them from the current government and capture the imagination of the electorate. But unless those shortcomings are overcome, Israelis will go with what they already familiar with. It is all too vague, and overall, on the main issues that Israel is grappling with, hardly questions some of the fundamental attitudes and policies of Netanyahu and the right. On the crucial issues — Israeli–Palestinian relations, religion and the state, social inequalities, regional and international policies — they present no more than a mild variation of the current government’s policies. This situation has resulted in the near disappearance of Labour, which recorded its worst electoral performance since the establishment of the state. It has a choice; either look for a young, vibrant and daring leadership in the image of rising political stars Stav Shafir or Itzik Shmueli, or return to the old guard, even bringing back Ehud Barak should he decide to abandon his current role of the “prophet at the gate” and dive back into the murky waters of national politics. Labour needs to remake itself, with a younger leadership that can reconnect with its natural base and present policies fit for a 21st-century welfare society. Similarly, there is a case for closer cooperation between the Jewish left and the parties that represent Israel’s Arab minorities. The latter also need to go back to the drawing board. While ideologically it makes sense for at least some of them to run separately in elections, they can gain substantially more seats when they run together and operate as one bloc with diverse opinions. It is difficult to impossible to predict where the Israeli political system is heading, especially while the prime minister spends more time with his lawyers than with his policy advisers, but it is for all parties to prepare for the big-bang scenario of Netanyahu’s eventual departure from politics, because of either the September elections or his indictment.

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