iger Roll negotiated another step on the path back to Aintree and an attempt to win a historic third Grand National on Tuesday, as the decision to compress his handicap mark by only 1lb prompted an expression of disappointment from his owners and a suggestion Michael O’Leary’s 10-year-old remains “50-50” to run in the world’s most famous steeplechase on 4 April. Given some of the rumblings from the O’Leary camp in the run-up to the publication of the National weights, that has to be seen as a positive. Eddie O’Leary, racing manager for his brother’s Gigginstown Stud operation, had suggested he had “a figure” in his head and that “if he hits that figure he runs and if he doesn’t, he won’t be running”. Whatever his figure was, it surely was not “1”, yet for the moment at least, Tiger Roll is still a contender. “[The weight] is a massive factor,” O’Leary said. “We’ve said the whole way through this horse is on a very unfair rating. He was raised 12lb last year for winning a cross-country race [at the Cheltenham Festival]. “The last time this horse ran in a [standard] chase was two-and-a-half years ago and he pulled up off 150. He’s obviously improved for the Grand National discipline and cross-country, but to rate this horse as a winner of a Gold Cup is ridiculous. Native River, a Gold Cup winner, hacked up last Saturday. He’s been compressed 2lb and we have to give him 4lb. I see something very unfair there. “The decision is now in our hands whether we run or not. Tiger is invaluable to us and we have to look after him. Hopefully he comes through the Navan test [in Sunday’s Boyne Hurdle] and then goes on to Cheltenham and hopefully shows us more there. Then we’ll decide, but at the moment, it’s 50-50. The Betway Bowl [the day before the National] is definitely coming into calculations now.” Tiger Roll’s owners are a little put out, in other words but a long way from deciding to take their bat home. O’Leary’s comments are also a useful reminder that while what could be the biggest racing story for half a century is still a possibility, there are several more obstacles to negotiate before a third tilt at the National is even a shade of odds-on. Wednesday’s best bets There will be no jumping in Britain until Thursday at the earliest after Hereford succumbed to the elements and while True Belief (8.00) and Manjaam (7.30) both have solid chances on the card at Kempton this evening and Jorvik Prince (4.00) looks good for a quickfire double at Southwell, it is also a good moment to sift through the Grand National odds now that we know the weights. It is 6-1 Tiger Roll and 16-1 bar now that the market has settled down, while Paddy Power take a rather more positive view of the chance that Tiger Roll will line up for the race than Eddie O’Leary, the owner’s brother and racing manager. While O’Leary insists that it is 50-50, the bookie goes 4-11 that Tiger Roll lines up and 15-8 that he does not, though anyone actually backing “no” should take a long look at themselves. There are, though, plenty of reasons why Tiger Roll could be missing from the field on 4 April regardless of the arguments about his handicap mark, and while there will be a rush of money to support him if he does line up, there will still be plenty of bookies (and Betfair players) happy to take him on. He went off at 4-1 last year, and there is no obvious reason why he might be a great deal shorter this time. Several of the names on the current list will be significantly shorter come the day, however, and the urge to spread a little each-way money around is impossible to resist. Native River has been given a real chance by the handicapper but is hard to back with any confidence at this stage when he seemingly has a tough assignment in the Gold Cup in front of him. He is an obvious second- or third-favourite if he lines up, but one that makes more appeal as a possible springer is Yala Enki (33-1), third home in the last two Welsh Nationals and a potential ride for Bryony Frost. He is 5lb better off at the weights with the winner, Potters Corner, having been beaten less than three lengths and is clearly tough as nails, as he put up one of the best performances of his career to win at Taunton over three-and-a-half miles less than a month after running at Chepstow. The Irish Grand National has also been a rich source of live contenders for Aintree in recent years and last year’s winner, Burrows Saint, is prominent in the early betting. He could well start favourite if Tiger Roll does not run, which would make his current price of 16-1 look very healthy, but the Fairyhouse form has another representative, also from the Mullins yard, in third-home Acapella Bourgeois. His jumping was a little mixed in the Thyestes Chase last time but he is 10lb better off with Burrows Saint having finished seven lengths behind at Fairyhouse and worth a small interest at 66-1.