The eurozone economy is showing few signs of the much hoped-for recovery as the industrial slump continues to crush growth and Germany remains “particularly exposed” to a coronavirus crunch in China. European Commission forecasts show GDP growth set to plod on at 1.2pc a year for the foreseeable future, with France and Germany set for an underwhelming 1.1pc in 2020, Italy stagnating at 0.3pc and even star-performer Spain slowing from 2pc in 2019 to 1.6pc this year. “Leading indicators suggest that manufacturing output may stabilise in the months to come, although an upturn is not yet on the cards,” the Commission said. “However, with hints of a bottoming out in global trade flows, and as the dampening impact of domestic inventory adjustment fades, a trough may have been reached.” The Commission has based its forecasts on the coronavirus having only a mild impact on the wider economy. “The baseline assumption is that the outbreak peaks in the first quarter, with relatively limited global spillovers,” it said. Anaemic Line chart with 2 lines. Eurozone growth is not set for a rebound The chart has 1 X axis displaying Time. Range: 2005-01-28 19:26:24 to 2022-03-02 04:33:36. The chart has 1 Y axis displaying % growth quarter on quarter. Range: -4 to 2. View as data table. Anaemic % growth quarter on quarter Anaemic Eurozone growth is not set for a rebound However, some economies face bigger risks. German industry is “particularly exposed” because of its exports to China and use of components made in the country, the Commission said. The eurozone’s biggest economy is already struggling with a severe industrial slump, and worse could be to come with threats from “subdued business sentiment and continued investment restraint; lower-than expected consumer confidence; and slower or weaker take-up of the planned fiscal stimulus”. Analysts at Rabobank estimate that 18pc of German exports will be hit by weaker demand from China and disruption to supply chains, while 9pc of the components used in the country come from China. “With German automotive output already at its lowest level since 2010, significant weakness in Chinese demand could be a serious headwind for Germany,” said Michael Every, the bank"s senior strategist for Asia-Pacific. Citibank cut its economic growth forecast for Germany by 0.3 percentage points for 2020, with the eurozone and UK both down 0.2 percentage points. Its economists also cut their global forecast from 2.7pc to 2.5pc for this year, anticipating a slightly faster 2021 as any rebound restores GDP.
مشاركة :