The confrontation between Russia and Turkey in the north of Syria has entered a new stage of escalation after Erdogan and Putin had been increasingly cooperating since 2015. Things have been escalating on several levels: the many negotiations held between the diplomats and intelligence officials of each of the two countries have been tense, and there have been direct clashes on the ground between the two. Erdogan and Putin have been working on developing their relationship in mercurial regional and international environments. Each of them sees it as an opportunity to serve his interests, and, although they test each other’s limits, both eventually return after realizing how vital the other is to his interests. The two leaders started building this relationship after Erdogan apologized for having had down a Sukhoi-24 on the Turkish-Syrian border in light of NATO’s timid support for Turkey, which did not go as far as activating the treaty’s fifth clause of defending its member states, as tensions had been escalating with Russia. Putin, known for taking opportunities, took a position that distinguished him from Turkey’s allies in Nato after the failed coup attempt of July 2016. He rushed to call his new friend and tell him that “Russia unambiguously refuses the use of unconstitutional violence in political life. This took the country’s relationship from being one of de-escalation on the back of the plane having had been down into one of enhancing economic and trade cooperation. Strategic projects were agreed upon and the volume of trade between them increased. Indeed, a plan meant to allow for the transportation of Russian gas through the Black Sea is set to launch at the beginning of 2020. Moscow has been leading the project of building an alternative to Geneva peace negotiations since 2017. At the beginning of 2017, it established the Astana negotiations, where the three players, Turkey, Russia, and Iran have been meeting without the fourth Player, the US. Agreements for “de-escalating” certain areas always ended with these areas coming under the control of Damascus. Idlib was one of these areas, and eventually this agreement went from being trilateral to being a bilateral agreement between Putin and Erdogan agreed upon in Sochi in 2018. The Sochi Agreement, a Russian-Turkish plan for cooperation Idlib, did not halt military operations. A "temporary" agreement that includes a ceasefire, a commercial exchange, the establishment of a "buffer zone" between government and opposition forces, the separation of extremists from the moderates, and the "reclamation" of the "Aleppo-Damascus" and "Aleppo-Latakia" roads. Putin has his explanation for this agreement: a temporary understanding in preparation for "bringing back sovereignty to all of the territories of the Syrian state", an entry point to reviving the Adana Agreement between Ankara and Damascus. Erdogan has his own ambition and interpretation of the agreement: a point of entry for Turkish expansion in northern Syria, a bridge connecting the "Euphrates Shield" to the "Olive Branch" and the Iskenderun Brigade (Hatay). As time went on, the gap between the two explanations, tracks, and approaches grew. The negotiations revealed the depth of the gap. The battlefield creates a balance of power. Putin called for reinforcements and led the Damascus offensive in Idlib in order to carry out his interpretation of Sochi. Erdogan sent reinforcements, troops, and equipment to enforce his own interpretation of the agreement. If he did nothing else, he at least prevented Damascus, Moscow, and Tehran from imposing the Russian version of Sochi. The Europeans and Americans understand that the “honeymoon” is over, and they are trying to capitalize on that to curtail Russian influence. In a scenario where they had to choose between, on the one hand, having Damascus, Moscow and Tehrans control Idlib, which would increase the number of displaced persons and refugees on the borders of Europe, heighten the danger of terrorism and, on the other, expanding Turkish influence in Idlib, in which case the displaced and civilians would stay put, Western countries would support the second option. It is ready to provide intelligence, diplomatic, and political support, any other kind of support save direct military involvement.
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