The coronavirus pandemic has stimulated much discussion about healthcare systems, medicines, energy, and the general state of the global economy. There has been insufficient focus on food and how it is produced, distributed and consumed. This problem needs addressing urgently at national, regional and world levels. The UN World Food Programme expects the number of people in the world experiencing hunger to double to 250 million because of the COVID-19 pandemic, with the most vulnerable in Afghanistan, Venezuela, Syria, South Sudan, Nigeria and Yemen. WFP director David Beasley fears that up to 300,000 people could die of hunger every day for the next three months, and he has appealed to members to pay their $1.9 billion contributions as a matter of urgency. Food supply has become globalized, with an intricate supply chain. Affluent countries have supermarkets in which everything is available at any time, regardless of where it is produced or whether it is in season. Spoiled shoppers put mangos, strawberries, peaches and avocados in their trolleys in the middle of December, having lost connectivity to where and how food is produced. It was not always thus. Our forefathers consumed what was produced locally. A century ago, most people in Europe would never have thought of eating meat every day; it was an expensive luxury for a privileged few. Nor did our forefathers waste food, while these days the world throws away 1.3 billion tons of food a year, a third of what we produce. While globalization and food production at scale have also reduced hunger by making food more accessible, this has been reversed somewhat in recent years by conflict and climate change. The pandemic has magnified and accelerated this reversal, while also exposing the fragility of globalized food systems; borders close, transport is disrupted, and European fruit and vegetable growers cannot hire the seasonal workers they need, creating the risk of produce rotting in the fields. In developing countries, matters are even more grave. Many day laborers in Nigeria, India and Bangladesh exist hand to mouth. If they live under lockdown in city slums, they risk losing access to food altogether. Staples such as rice or grain are often not consumed at the point of production. The activist British farmer Patrick Holden, founder of the Sustainable Food Trust campaign group, says the guarantor of food security is for countries to produce a substantial amount of these staples domestically where possible, and argues that this is resilience, not protectionism. Supplying the world with food is both a local and a global issue, so we must find solutions at both levels, remaining mindful of the effect our decisions have; otherwise, hundreds of millions mainly in the developing world risk starvation, which in turn will create more waves of refugees. Countries tread thin lines between resilience, self sufficiency and protectionism. If we err on the side of protectionism, choices may become matters of war and peace in some parts of the world. Cornelia Meyer is a business consultant, macro-economist and energy expert. Twitter: @MeyerResources
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