Evening summary Lucy Campbell The UK coronavirus death toll rose above 32,000 to the highest in Europe. ONS figures and calculations by Reuters revealed that 32,313 deaths were registered with Covid-19 on the death certificate. However, as the official tally reached 29,427, the government rejected international comparisons due to all-cause excess mortality as well as differences in how individual countries collect and measure their data. Dominic Raab told the daily press briefing: I don’t think you can make the international comparisons you’re suggesting at this stage, at least I don’t think you can make them reliably. The UK’s testing capacity should have been expanded sooner, Sir Patrick Vallance told the health committee. However he said Dr Jenny Harries had been right to say testing on its own does not provide the solution. He said: In the early phases, if we had managed to ramp testing capacity quicker, it would have been beneficial. For all sorts of reasons that did not happen. And I think it’s clear you need lots of testing for this. Reopening all schools at once would create a “very real risk” of an increase in the infection rate and of a second peak, the government said. Raab said the evidence to date suggested the five tests and risk of a second spike were crucial to deciding how and when to reopen schools, and Sage is considering different options for how to do this safely. This came on the same day the Scottish government published a paper outlining that it would not be safe for schools to reopen fully in the foreseeable future. An extract said: Full reopening [of schools] would cause a resurgence in the virus such that hospital capacity in Scotland would be overwhelmed in less than two months ... We are considering a phased approach to returning pupils to school, when it is safe to do so. We do not consider it likely that schools will reopen fully in the foreseeable future. Indeed, we are not yet certain that they can re-open at all in the near future. Virgin Atlantic announced plans to cut 3,150 jobs and end its operation of Gatwick. The airline said uncertainty over when flying will resume as well as “unprecedented market conditions” as a result of the pandemic had “severely reduced revenues”, leaving it to reduce its workforce by more than a third. That’s it from us for today on the UK side. Thank you to everyone who got in touch with a story and to all of you for reading along. If you would like to continue following the Guardian’s coverage of the pandemic, head over to the global live blog for the worldwide picture. In these extraordinary times, the Guardian’s editorial independence has never been more important. Because no one sets our agenda, or edits our editor, we can keep delivering quality, trustworthy, fact-checked journalism each and every day. Free from commercial or political bias, we can report fearlessly on world events and challenge those in power. Your support protects the Guardian’s independence. We believe every one of us deserves equal access to accurate news and calm explanation. No matter how unpredictable the future feels, we will remain with you, delivering high quality news so we can all make critical decisions about our lives, health and security – based on fact, not fiction. Support the Guardian from as little as $1 – and it only takes a minute. Thank you. As the UK’s official death toll from Covid-19 passed Italy’s for the first time, it is worth noting that one month ago, government sources were privately sceptical of a study by world-leading disease data analysts that projected the UK would be the worst-affected country in Europe. The study anticipated 66,000 deaths by August. The total figure on Tuesday, which is certain to be an underestimate, was already more than 32,000. With Britain’s relative position appearing to worsen, the government’s attempt to shape the narrative at its daily Downing Street press briefing has become more important – and the slideshow of charts presented by advisers have been at the heart of the story. The slides have become a recognisable feature of the discussion but there has been little scrutiny of the data behind them – and how it can mislead rather than enlighten. Dominic Raab"s press conference - Summary Here are the main points from Dominic Raab’s press conference. Raab, the foreign secretary and first secretary of state, claimed it was too early to say that the UK has the worst record for coronavirus deaths in Europe. He was speaking after he said that the official death toll for coronavirus deaths in the UK is now 29,427. This covers all people who have died and tested positive for coronavirus. It does not include people who will have died from coronavirus without a test being carried out. As this chart from the respected Worldometer website shows, today’s total means the headline UK figure has overtaken Italy’s and is now the highest in Europe. But when it was put to Raab that the UK now has the worst record in Europe, he did not accept that. He replied: In terms of the comparison you’re suggesting ... I don’t think we’ll get a real verdict on how well countries have done until the pandemic is over and particularly until we’ve got comprehensive international data on all cause of mortality. Raab also suggested that one reason why the UK might be looking so bad was because of the efficiency of the Office for National Statistics. He said: We now publish data that includes all deaths in all settings and not all countries do that so I’m not sure that the international comparison works unless you reliably know that all countries are measuring in the same way. And it also depends on how good frankly, countries are at gathering their statistics, and our own Office for National Statistics is widely acknowledged as a world leader. I don’t think you can make the international comparisons you’re suggesting at this stage, at least I don’t think you can make them reliably. Raab said it would not be safe to re-open all schools in England. He said: At least to date the evidence has been that we wouldn’t be able to open up all schools without a very real risk that the R rate - the transmission rate - would rise at such a level that we would risk a second spike. He was speaking in response to a question about whether the UK government agreed with the assessment of the Scottish government, which in a paper published today (pdf) said schools in Scotland could not fully re-open for the foreseeable future. The Scottish document said: Full re-opening [of schools] would cause a resurgence in the virus such that hospital capacity in Scotland would be overwhelmed in less than two months ... We are considering a phased approach to returning pupils to school, when it is safe to do so. We do not consider it likely that schools will reopen fully in the foreseeable future. Indeed, we are not yet certain that they can re-open at all in the near future. Raab said cyber criminals, aided by hostile states, were trying to take advantage of the coronavirus crisis. He said: We have clear evidence now that these criminal gangs are actively targeting national and international organisations which are responding to the Covid-19 pandemic which I have to say makes them particularly dangerous and venal at this time. Our teams have identified campaigns targeting healthcare bodies, pharmaceutical companies, research organisations and various different arms of local government. There are various objectives and motivations that lie behind these attacks from fraud on one hand to espionage but they tend to be designed to steal bulk personal data, intellectual property and wider information that supports those aims and they’re with other state actors. He confirmed that, for the third day in a row, the number of coronavirus tests carried out fell below the 100,000 target set for the end of April. He said 84,806 tests were carried out on Monday. He said ministers are looking at sports being played behind closed doors in the second phase of the coronavirus response. Asked about the Premier League possibly returning in mid-June, he replied: I think it would lift the spirits of the nation. I think people would like to see us get back not just to work and get to a stage where children can safely return to school, but also enjoy some of those pastimes, sporting in particular. I know that the government has had constructive meetings with sports bodies to plan for athletes to resume training when it’s safe to do so. I can tell you that the culture secretary [Oliver Dowden] has also been working on a plan to get sports played behind closed doors when we move to the second phase, that’s something I can tell you we’re looking at. Whether it’s a combination of test, tracking, tracing and other social distancing measures within what’s possible within a sporting environment we want to see whether behind closed doors what the options are for doing that. The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus among prisoners and staff continues to rise, the latest Ministry of Justice data shows. As at 5pm on Monday, 362 prisoners had tested positive for the virus across 74 prisons, an increase of 1% in 24 hours, while infected staff rose by 1.5% to 401 workers in 67 prisons in the same period. The figures include those who have recovered. A total of 19 prisoners and six prison staff are known to have contracted Covid-19 and died. There are 80,100 prisoners in England and Wales and around 33,000 staff in public-sector prisons. Doctors in Birmingham have launched an urgent investigation into how and why Covid-19 is disproportionately affecting black, Asian and minority ethnic people, our colleague Haroon Siddique reports. Last month the government announced a similar nationwide inquiry but details remain sparse and the selection of some of those chosen to assist has proved controversial. Meanwhile, doctors at University hospitals Birmingham NHS trust are pressing ahead with their own review. Dr Adnan Sharif, a consultant nephrologist at Queen Elizabeth hospital, said: Birmingham is a single local authority, over a million people on its books with a large, 42%, BAME community which has been impacted by Covid a lot, so it would be the best place to try and do this. Figures from another trust in the region show 64% of coronavirus deaths at Birmingham city hospital in March were from BAME communities, although it fell last month to 50%. University hospitals Birmingham NHS trust, one of the biggest teaching trusts in the country, has recorded the highest number of Covid-19 deaths of any trust. The full story is here. Gove floats prospect of UK conceding need for some tariffs in UK-EU trade deal Michael Gove has hinted that the UK would be prepared to abandon its goal of getting a zero-tariff, zero-quotas trade deal with the EU if it did not relent on its demand for a level playing field. Speaking to the House of Lords EU committee, the Cabinet Office minister said it might be a way of showing the EU how serious the UK was. He explained: It is a ‘for instance’ of an area where we would say, okay, we’re prepared to modify our ‘ask’ because of the importance that we maintain over regulatory autonomy. It may be that the EU doesn’t resolve that in ways that would be helpful, but it is one of the ways in which we would be prepared to show leg. The EU wants the UK to commit to a level playing field in workers’ rights, environmental protections and state aid so that it doesn’t have a “Singapore-type” competitor on its door step. Gove floated the idea of the UK accepting the case for a trade deal involving some tariffs as a solution. He said: Were it the case that the EU were to say, ‘you know what, we don’t think we can give you that unless you sign up to all our level playing field arrangements’, so we said ‘OK, we’re not signing up for those LPF arrangements, we will have non-regression clauses and agreements, so you can be sure about our standards’. But, if it is the case that we ended up like CETA [the EU-Canada trade deal] with tariffs on a small number of goods, we will regret that, we will think it is a missed opportunity, but if that is the price that we have to pay, then, there we go. Here is a clip of the moment Matt Hancock, the health secretary, criticised the ‘tone’ of Labour shadow minister and A&E doctor Rosena Allin-Khan after she said the government’s lack of testing had cost lives. She also said the figures were being manipulated to achieve a goal of 100,000 tests a day. The press conference is now over. Q: [From the Western Mail in Wales] These press conferences can be confusing for people in Wales, because some measures are UK-wide and some are England-only. Will you be clearer about this? Raab says the advice has been “remarkably consistent” across all four UK nations. Raab says it would be good to get sports events happening again. But this can only happen when the medical and scientific advice says it can be done safely. Q: If sports are behind closed doors, will that apply until a vaccine is found? Raab says he cannot look too far into the future because a vaccine is just one way of controlling the disease. Therapeutics (medicines) are another. Test, track and trace might be an answer too, he says. Raab says it would not be safe to reopen all schools Q: What are the prospects of schools opening in England? Raab says he feels for parents dealing with home schooling, and for teachers. He says the five tests are crucial. The government wants to avoid a second spike. He says Sage is looking at different options. But they could not open all schools without a real risk of R going above 1, he says. Raab says it would not be safe to reopen all schools. Q: What do we know about obesity as a risk factor? Should people diet? McLean says obesity does seem to make you more at risk. It is best not to be obese, she says. But she says that there are better ways to control your weight than dieting. Q: The Scottish government said today if schools went back in Scotland, hospitals could become overwhelmed, by as much as seven times. Does that apply to England? McLean says it is hard to monitor children, because they tend to have very mild symptoms if they get it. Q: Is it the right time to do Brexit talks? Or are there benefits from doing it now? Raab says both sides will want to avoid uncertainty. We are making good progress, he says. Or progress, he says, correcting himself. But he says it is important to avoid future uncertainty. To do that, the UK and the EU should strike a trade deal. Both sides could then bounce back. Prolonging the uncertainty would make things worse, he says. Q: Why is the end-of-year deadline so important? The country wants certainty, Raab says. Q: When the test, track and trace system is in place, do you think the death rate will come closer to the European average? Raab says the UK has been able to flatten the peak because of public cooperation with the lockdown. He says test, track and trace should give the government the ability to move to the second phase. McLean says the global death comparison chart shows cumulative deaths. So the numbers won’t go down. They can only go flat. And the UK will only match other countries if they catch up, McLean says. But she says she would not wish that on anyone. Raab says it is too early to say UK has worst coronavirus death record in Europe Q: It is looking as if the UK now has the highest death toll in Europe. Raab says his heart goes out to the families of all those who have died. But he says he does not think we will get a real verdict until this is all over. All-cause excess mortality is what counts. He says countries count in different ways. And some are better at counting than others. He says the ONS is one of the best organisations of its kind in the world. And he says the government wants the most accurate figures, because that shapes policy. I don’t think you can make the international comparisons you are making at this stage - at least, I don’t think you can make them reliably.