Economists and housing experts are forecasting UK-wide price falls of up to 13%, with “brutal” declines in some areas, as the property market struggles to rebuild during the coronavirus crisis. The range of forecasts from the major researchers is markedly wider than usual. At one end is the Centre for Economics and Business Research, which predicts that 2020 prices will be down by 13% “as a lack of transactions, high uncertainty and falling incomes take their toll”. But the estate agent Savills said the hit to the market could be more like 5%, and a third of valuation surveyors are predicting that price falls may be limited to 4% or less. The post-lockdown market will be a buyer’s market, said Jonathan Hopper of Garrington Property Finders, as he forecast falls of 10% nationally and 15% in some areas. “Areas with a more resilient jobs market should see values hold up better, but elsewhere the price correction could be more brutal,” he said. Knight Frank, in a revised forecast issued this week, said it anticipated a fall of 7% in 2020, more than its earlier forecast of 3%. Its analysis suggested prices had already fallen 5% since March, with a further downtick to come. “Our view is that as the market reopens in the next two months, the 5% fall in values we have seen since late March will be revealed in achieved pricing – and while there could be some further downward pressure through to the summer it is likely to be limited,” the agent said. The reopening of the housing market will unlock a lot of stalled transactions, said Lucian Cook, Savills’ head of residential research. But he added: “We expect newly agreed deals to take time to rebuild as buyers gradually rebuild confidence. More immediately, things like viewings and mortgage valuations will rely on homeowners being comfortable with measures put in place to protect their safety.” Savills expects short-term price falls of between 5% and 10%. Underpinning the market are historically low interest rates, with the Bank of England base rate at just 0.1%. But forecasters are also weighing up large numbers of imponderables, such as the unemployment rate in coming months, the level of construction activity and the availability of mortgage finance. The type of housing buyers are seeking may also change. The lockdown has prompted a surge in the numbers of would-be homebuyers planning to move out of the city to a rural area, or smaller town, as people conclude home working is here to stay, Savills said. The conventional house price indices in recent months have been regarded as almost meaningless, as transaction activity fell so precipitously that properly comparable nationwide data has not been available. Last week Halifax said that on a monthly basis, prices in April were 0.6% lower than in March, but added: “With market activity currently almost at a complete standstill, the limited number of transactions available means that calculating average house prices has inevitably become more challenging.” The Office for National Statistics last week temporarily suspended its UK house price index from the April index until further notice. However, for those sellers clinging on for a high price, there are some crumbs of comfort from the auction market. Auction House UK, which has 36 auction rooms across the country, said sales were still at 60% of normal levels. “We’re also seeing many properties sell for well above their guide prices. In the last few weeks, 10 bidders pushed a three-bedroom terraced house in London guided at £375,000 up to £553,000.”