Johnson’s lockdown exit plan shatters UK consensus

  • 5/15/2020
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Boris Johnson on Sunday unveiled his much-anticipated roadmap to ease the UK’s coronavirus lockdown. Yet, while this has been welcomed by some in the business community, it has promoted more confusion than clarity and shattered the fragile political consensus that previously existed across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The prime minister’s key message is that now is not the time to lift the lockdown in full; that might not happen for many weeks to come. But he outlined plans for a cautious reopening in England from this week into the summer, including telling the millions of people who cannot do their jobs from home — he specifically cited the construction and manufacturing sectors — to return to work this week, while following social distancing rules and avoiding public transport where possible. While this has been applauded by some business leaders, the very short notice given to workers and employers left others aghast. Richard Burge, chief executive of the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry, urged businesses not to return to work straight away, saying it would be “foolish” until the government provided more explicit guidance. Trade unions have echoed this, saying that Johnson’s instructions were a recipe for chaos in the absence of more action to safeguard workers’ health. These reactions underline that Johnson announced his much-anticipated blueprint the wrong way round. He would have been much better off by first releasing a coherent, comprehensive document in the House of Commons. Only then should he have addressed the nation on television, rather than giving the very confusing initial broadcast he did at 7pm on Sunday, which raised more questions than it gave answers. Such criticisms are made more powerful as they come when the government is already on the back foot due to the fact that the UK has the highest official coronavirus death toll in Europe. And the Johnson team has also, mostly, failed to deliver on its daily testing target of 100,000 — less than three weeks before the prime minister’s new goal of 200,000 tests a day is due to be met. Another example of the lack of clarity in Johnson’s plan stems from his decision to change the central slogan for the lockdown, from “stay at home” to “stay alert.” Whereas the former message was widely understood, many have expressed confusion over what the latter means in the context of the current health emergency, given the invisible nature of the virus. In addition to announcing that more people should go back to work, Johnson also hopes to see, from next month, a phased reopening of shops and the youngest students going back to schools. Then, from July at the earliest, there could be a reopening of at least some of the hospitality industry and other public places, subject to social distancing. The huge confusion caused by Johnson’s proposals have not just caused concern for some business leaders, but also shattered the political consensus that previously existed across the UK. In Westminster, new Labour leader Keir Starmer said that the plan was already “unraveling.” He said: “The prime minister appears to be effectively telling millions of people to go back to work without a clear plan for safety or clear guidance as to how to get there without using public transport.” Beyond England, the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish administrations have made it clear that they will not be following the changes announced by Johnson. They are also keeping the central “stay at home” message in a rebuke to the prime minister. The criticism Johnson has received underlines the exceptionally difficult balancing act he now has. Andrew Hammond The criticism Johnson has received from Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast underlines the exceptionally difficult balancing act he now has, given that he is also under pressure from other stakeholders for not acting fast enough. For some backbench MPs in his own party and right-of-center think tanks such as the Institute of Economic Affairs, the easing of the lockdown is neither sufficiently sweeping nor speedy, despite the fact that the prime minister took his decisions after receiving advice that the UK death toll could climb to 100,000 if lockdown restrictions are rescinded too quickly. Another reason for caution is that the prime minister is also acutely aware that coronavirus infections are accelerating again in Germany. This comes just days after its leaders loosened social restrictions, raising concerns that the pandemic could slip out of control in that country. Overall, Johnson has had a miserable week in what could be a make-or-break period for his prime ministership. Unless he significantly raises his game, public confidence may yet drain away from him and his government, transforming the UK political landscape in the second half of 2020. Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view

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