British theatres are in a state of “high jeopardy” and some will go bust unless the government comes up with a specific package of help, leading figures in the industry have told the Guardian. Theatres are expected to be among the final organisations to open after the lockdown and, with warnings of physical distancing continuing at least until the end of the year, many fear they will not be able to properly operate until 2021. A shiver went through the sector when Southampton’s Nuffield theatre this month went into administration because of the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus. There will be more Southamptons without more help, regional artistic directors have said. Tom Morris, artistic director at Bristol Old Vic, said: “If you just look at the numbers, the threat is very vivid. Every theatre has faced a complete cliff edge in terms of its income.” Like other theatres, it is only hanging on because of the government’s furlough scheme. For the “terrifying period” in between that ending and being able to open up properly, the sector needs specific government support, Morris said. “We do not want to destroy British theatre by accident.” Morris, whose Bristol production of Touching the Void opened in the West End last year, said regional theatre was a vital talent pipeline for the UK’s world-leading creative sector. James Brining, the artistic director of Leeds Playhouse, said theatre was facing an existential threat. “There is so much uncertainty and that’s our biggest issue – how do you plan and what will the consequences of different scenarios be?” All theatres are busily modelling scenarios of allowing fewer people into buildings and having physically distanced audiences. The composer Andrew Lloyd Webber has reportedly warned that theatres cannot reopen with physical distancing measures in place in a letter to the culture secretary, Oliver Dowden. Adam Penford, the artistic director of Nottingham Playhouse, said his team had produced 25 different seating plans, none of which made any economic sense. That echoes comments by producer Cameron Mackintosh, who has predicted West End and Broadway theatre will not reopen until next year. “The truth is until social distancing doesn’t exist any more, we can’t even plan to reopen.” Penford questioned whether audiences would even want to sit in an auditorium with so many empty seats. “Is it the true experience of live theatre? Maybe people will adjust to it, maybe a blitz spirit will kick in. You’d have to test it, but it’s going to be an expensive test.” Penford is particularly worried that Nottingham’s pantomime may not happen and the consequences of that. “The pantomime is incredibly popular with our audience and we are very proud of it. It makes a really generous surplus every year. It is a fundamental part of our business model and we use the money to fund the rest of the year in terms of new and riskier artistic work.” One fear articulated by Penford and others is that after the lockdown, theatre may be more risk-averse. “It is a big worry,” he said. “I don’t want us to take a step back in terms of representation and access and championing emerging artists.” Daniel Evans, artistic director of Chichester Festival Theatre, said the situation for British theatre was one of “high jeopardy”. Chichester is better placed than others for physically distanced audience experiments in that it has a huge 1,300-seat main theatre. “Say we have 300-400 people in there and we could make some kind of production that wasn’t too costly … we can imagine that happening as an interim measure.” It is also examining using its lawn for physically distanced outdoor shows, and the car park as a drive-in cinema. “All these ideas are interim stuff, but I do think it would be helpful to try to test the waters to see what audience appetite is like, to see how audiences behave, but also to see if it is something we could develop until such time when we are back fully. And we will be back fully.” Evans said physically distanced programming in the main theatre would begin with comedy, cabaret, spoken word and physical theatre, which often requires little in the way of set or design. Outside, he is thinking of events that might cheer people up, along the lines of songs from the shows, or a mass quiz. Beyond that, there could be monologues and duologues. Beckett plays in particular might lend themselves to the new environment. “I was actually thinking of Happy Days [whose main character Winnie is buried to her waist in sand],” said Evans. “That’s pretty socially distanced.” Bolton’s Octagon theatre has a 400-seat auditorium, and having fewer people in would not work, said artistic director Lotte Wakeham. “We really do rely on audiences and people spending at the bar and using the cafe. That smaller audience model would be a real challenge.” The Octagon was due to reopen in the summer after a £12m refurbishment. That has now been delayed until at least October, blowing a £500,000 hole in its finances. “We’re starting to look at a scenario in which we might not be able to open until 2021,” said Wakeham. Most employees in theatres are furloughed, but most organisations are continuing their wider work in the communities that they serve. Brining said people were missing theatre. “I phoned around some of the older people’s groups, and it is really inspiring … They say, ‘Coming to the playhouse is what keeps me going.’ One lady said she’s going to donate to us because she’s not getting out now. It’s totally humbling.”