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Coronavirus is still spreading too fast to lift the lockdown, a Sage adviser warned. Prof John Edmunds said that 8,000 daily infections in England is a very high level of incidence, making lifting restrictions too risky. He said: I think many of us would prefer to see the incidence driven down to lower levels because that then means that we have fewer cases occurring before we relax the measures. I think at the moment, with relatively high incidence and relaxing the measures and also with an untested track and trace system, I think we are taking some risk here. Employers are set to pay 20% of salaries by October, as the chancellor announced changes to the final months of the furlough scheme. Government contributions to the scheme will be gradually tapered off until it ends in October, with businesses contributing modestly to furloughed salaries from August and improved flexibility to bring furloughed employees back part time from 1 July. The full details are here. The Self-Employment Income Support scheme is to be extended, Rishi Sunak confirmed. Those eligible for SEISS will be able to claim a second and final grant in August, covering 70% of the applicant’s average monthly profits for the three months. The amount will be capped at £6,570. Half of people in England with symptoms are not self-isolating for at least a week, according to a report by a subgroup of Sage. It raises questions about the test and trace policy, which requires people to self-isolate for 14 days if they are informed that a recent contact has tested positive for the virus, even if they have no symptoms themselves. A further 324 people who tested positive for Covid-19 died, bringing the UK total to 38, 161. And 131,458 tests were carried out or dispatched with 2,095 positive results. That’s it from me today from the UK side. Thank you to everyone who spoke to me today and to all of you for reading along. If you would like to continue following the Guardian’s coverage of the pandemic, head over to the global live blog for the worldwide picture. More than 1 million people have signed a petition calling for Dominic Cummings to be sacked over his potential breach of lockdown rules. Despite Downing Street’s efforts to divert focus away from the row, hundreds of thousands of people added their names to the petition in recent days demanding that the prime minister fire his most senior adviser. It is a further sign that public outrage over the affair is not abating. It comes as a Guardian analysis revealed that MPs have been bombarded with tens of thousands of emails from angry constituents, with many sharing their own personal stories of lockdown hardship. The number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 within the prison estate continues to rise, Ministry of Justice figures show. As at 5pm on Thursday, 459 prisoners across were confirmed to have the coronavirus across 77 prisons, a 1.5% increase in 24 hours, while there were 907 infected prison staff across 105 prisons, an increase of 1% in the same period. The figures are not live cases and include those who have recovered. To date, there have been 22 prisoners and nine staff known to have contracted Covid-19 and died. There are around 80,000 prisoners in 117 prisons in England and Wales, while there are around 33,000 staff working in public sector prisons. The government’s decision to extend the scheme to help the self-employed still leaves the “most vulnerable” workers at risk, according to a trade body for the creative sector. The Creative Industries Federation has warned that the move is a “missed opportunity” to help those who “continue to fall through the gaps” of the government’s schemes to help workers. The chancellor Rishi Sunak announced on Friday that he has extended the self-employment income support scheme - which has so far seen 2.3 million claims worth 6.8 billion - enabling freelancers to access grants of up to 6,570 from August. Caroline Norbury, Creative Industries Federation CEO, said that the government must avoid a “cliff-edge” end to support, adding that many workers in the creative industries will not be able to work anytime soon. A third of the creative workforce is freelance, including those working in music, performing arts, film, festivals and live events, who will be unable to return to work for quite some time. We called on government to extend the self-employed income support scheme and we are pleased to see that this has been announced today. However, the most vulnerable are still at risk, and this is a missed opportunity to catch those freelancers who continue to fall through the gaps, such as PAYE freelancers, limited company contractors and the newly self-employed. She added that there remains a “worrying inequity between those on payroll, who have 80% of their income secured until the end of October, and the self-employed, who will see support cut off in August.” Q. Are places with higher infection rates like Hull more susceptible to the virus as restrictions get lifted across the board? Are they more likely to see local lockdowns imposed? Powis says there will be variation in the rate of infection around the country, which is not unusual. The estimate of the R number across England is that’s it’s below 1, he says, so even with variation the trend is downwards. There will likely be much more localised outbreaks, e.g. in dormitories and prisons, he says, which will require local public health intervention. Key will be detecting these localised outbreaks early and intervening to break transmission before it becomes a wider problem, he adds. Q. Hull has one of the worst unemployment rates in the country. What’s your message to the people struggling? Can you pledge to support the workers after these schemes elapse? Sunak says many Hull businesses will have received help from the government’s schemes, including cash grants and business rates holidays. He is doing everything he can to stand behind Britain’s workers, he says. And that’s it, the press conference is over. Q. Should ministers take a pay cut in solidarity with workers, as in New Zealand? Sunak says he wasn’t aware of this but he’ll look into it. Q. Is it going to be possible to shield the wider public sector from the economic fallout we face? Sunak says the process whereby pay review bodies collect evidence and advise the government, that will happen later this year. Q. Is there a safe way to share a BBQ or should we all be looking to picnics instead? Powis says whether it’s in a private garden or in a park, for having a BBQ, the two metre rule and hand-washing remain critical. Q. Will you reaffirm that you won’t get rid of the Tory manifesto commitment on the triple tax lock? Sunak says he won’t write future budgets today. Q. Would you like to see the two metre rule reduced? Sunak says it is being kept under review but we’re not there at this point. Powis adds two metres isn’t absolute – the closer you are to somebody and the longer you are close to somebody is also important. The scientific evidence is unchanged but if new evidence becomes available it will be taken into account, he adds. Q. We haven’t gone from level 4 to 3 – but we’ve pressed ahead anyway. Doesn’t it look like the decision was taken regardless of the advice? Sunak says the decision was taken in conjunction with the scientific advice. The test and trace system and the surveillance system gives us the ability to measure what’s happening across the country and react quickly in a more targeted way, he adds. Q.The alert level remains at 4. It’s only at 3 that you can have gradual relaxation of restrictions, but we’re doing that at 4. Does that mean we’re no longer following the science? Sunak says because we’re meeting the five tests, we can begin to carefully lift restrictions. This is being done in a measured and phased, as opposed to reckless, progressive way, he says. We remain engaged with scientific advice, he adds. Q. Are we being a bit risky in going forward with relaxing restrictions? Powis says the important thing is to keep the transmission – the R – below 1. Infection rates in the community need to be monitored really closely and action taken if the R starts to go above 1, he says. The scientific advice to the government will be how to do this through a range of measures going forward and avoid any second peak, he adds. "There will be hardships for many when the furlough scheme ends" Q. How tough a period do the British people need to prepare themselves for, in terms of unemployment? Sunak says despite this extraordinary intervention to protect as many jobs as possible, they can’t protect every job. We’re in a better place than we otherwise would have been, he says. However, there will be hardships ahead for many when the furlough scheme ends in October, the chancellor says. He will work hard to help get people back into work if they do lose their jobs, he adds. Q. If there’s a second spike and reimposing of lockdown measures, will you switch the furlough scheme back or would it just be over? Sunak says the scheme will end in October. Q. Will there be an emergency budget? Sunak says he was planning an autumn budget but the timing will be released in the normal course of business. Q. Is £100bn roughly what we’re looking at for the total cost of both schemes for the total eight months? Sunak says the OBR has provided a range of estimates. It’s difficult to say what the total aggregate cost will be, he adds, because the flexible furlough will make that hard to predict. Q. Why haven’t we had people-tested numbers for the past six days? Powis says he can’t give a specific answer on this but testing is increasing all the time. This week the antibody test has been rolled out in hospitals and healthcare facilities, he adds. They are taking questions from journalists now. Q. Is £100bn your limit [for the furlough/SEISS schemes] and so unemployment will spike after? Sunak says the scheme is very generous and will amount to the employer making a 5% contribution. Around 40% of employers don’t pay national insurance or pension contributions at all, he says, so they won’t be affected by the changes in August. Companies can apply in advance of payroll for the furlough scheme, he adds, which will help with cash flow. Q. If the alert level hasn’t gone down [from 4 to 3], why are we loosening things up? Powis says the Joint Biosecurity Centre is feeding information into the four chief medical officers across the four nations. The NHS needs to be able to respond to any surge of infection in the community, so it’s important to link in to the centre and adapt what we’re doing, he adds. Simona from Eastbourne asks what the government is doing to support women returning to work from maternity leave who have no childcare and can’t be furloughed. Sunak says the various schemes, tax cuts and loans in place will help many people. The reopening of schools will also help people with children to get back to work, he adds. They are taking questions from the public. Will from Manchester asks what specifically is the government doing to maintain low emission rates as lockdown eases. Sunak says more people are cycling as they commute. Powis adds that the NHS wants to make changes such as reducing the number of face-to-face appointments to cut down NHS-related transport. Many of these things have happened during the pandemic and this approach should be kept as much as possible, he adds. SEISS to be extended with final claim in August The Self-Employment Income Scheme will be extended, with applications opening in August for a second and final grant, he says. It will be paid out in a single instalment, covering three months’ worth of average monthly trading profits, he says. The value of the final grant will be 70%, up to a total of £6,570, he adds. From 1 July, flexible furlough will be in place, he says. Employers will have maximum flexibility to decide to bring back employees for a number of days per week.
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