Universities claim they will lose up to $16bn by 2023 due to the impact of Covid-19, according to new modelling. Universities Australia has raised the stakes in lobbying for an industry assistance package or relaxed visa conditions to facilitate international students by revealing it now expects members to lose between $3.1bn and $4.8bn this year alone. The peak body had previously estimated losses of up to $4.6bn, warning of 21,000 job losses in the sector. The warning prompted the government to guarantee its $18bn contribution to universities but it refused to kick in extra funding. As the government has indicated it will extend further assistance to the tourism, arts and entertainment, and construction industries – other sectors hard hit by the global pandemic are lining up to call for more support. A report by Social Ventures Australia and the Centre for Social Impact estimates that a 20% fall in revenue could put nearly 250,000 charity workers out of a job and see as many as one in six charities at high risk of closing down. On Tuesday, Guardian Australia reported that the National Covid-19 Coordination Commission’s philanthropy advisory group will consider calling for more support for charities, which have lost out due to reduced volunteer fundraising drives and donations through major events. The university sector is struggling after a series of changes that excluded all public universities from the jobkeeper wage subsidy and the collapse of a deal with the National Tertiary Education Union to accept pay cuts in return for saving up to 12,000 jobs. The new Universities Australia modelling assumes international student numbers will recover to pre-pandemic numbers by 2022. Based on a 20% drop in international enrolments this year, it estimated a $3.3bn drop in revenue, rising to a $4.3bn loss with a further 20% drop in 2021. The Universities Australia chief executive, Catriona Jackson, said the new four-year modelling demonstrated Covid-19 would have a “sustained effect” on universities’ finances “not just in the current year but in the years to come”. It estimated that up to $3.5bn of research and development funding a year could be at risk. “Not only does that revenue support the staff and facilities to educate the next generation of skilled workers, it also pays for much of the research and innovation that keeps Australia internationally competitive,” Jackson said. “The danger is that if universities are unable to continue funding this activity, Australia’s ability to innovate its way out of the Covid-19 recession will be severely hampered.” In the absence of further industry assistance, the university sector has pinned its hopes on improved pathways for international students to begin study online while overseas – which is not currently allowed by visa rules – and come to Australia as soon as international travel resumes. On Tuesday, the Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, suggested that universities might be asked to pay for international students’ two-week quarantine period when they return to Australia to study. Andrews confirmed he had spoken with university vice-chancellors and prime minister Scott Morrison about getting international education “back on its feet soon”. He said the cost of the two-week hotel quarantine – currently born by the government – could be funded through a “partnership approach” with universities. The federal government has so far resisted calls for greater support for universities by noting that in semester one, some 80% of international students made it to Australia before Covid-19 travel restrictions.