Bicycle sales could be set to fall by 10% this year despite a surge in demand during the coronavirus lockdown. Spending on bikes is expected to drop to £842m from £940m last year, when 2.5m new bikes were saddled up in the UK, according to market research firm Mintel. Mintel said the switch from public transport and cars to two wheels during the coronavirus pandemic was likely to be offset by a downturn in consumer spending prompted by the likely recession caused by the lockdown. John Worthington, senior analyst at Mintel, said: “The Covid-19 crisis and its economic impact have ushered in a period of unprecedented volatility in the cycling market. “The crisis has provided a boost to demand in the immediate term, but bike sales are likely to fall later in 2020 as an anticipated deep recession bites. The likely repercussions of Covid-19 on cycling participation are complex. The UK lockdown is disrupting patterns of behaviour, which initially resulted in lower levels of weekday cycle commuting overall, but a boost to weekend leisure riding.” Worthington said he expected sales to rebound from next year, reaching £1bn by 2023 as people avoided public transport. Mintel’s prediction comes as a surprise after new bike sales surged by 50% in April, according to the Bicycle Association trade body. Online marketplace eBay has said that its secondhand cycle sales that month were up 23% on the same time last year while repair shops have reported a surge in demand. Cycling promotional body Cycling UK said it expected bicycle sales to expand despite – or perhaps because of – the expected recession. “During these difficult times, people have realised that cycling is an incredibly cost-effective alternative to driving or public transport for shorter journeys. They have also discovered the joys of cycling as a way to get exercise and enjoy the great outdoors,” said Roger Geffen, the body’s policy director. “The prime minister recently told the Commons that the UK is entering a ‘golden age of cycling’ and will shortly unveil a cycling and walking plan, backed by £2bn of new spending. Councils are now hastily installing new cycle lanes to make cycling a safe and attractive alternative to public transport.”