Ministers were warned by senior policing figures on the eve of chaotic scenes at beaches last week that lifting the lockdown is “madness” and risks prompting fresh disorder. During a meeting last Wednesday with police and crime commissioners, the Home Office minister Kit Malthouse was told that the decision to reopen pubs on 4 July could lead to increased violence and that coastal resorts could be overrun. According to the West Midlands police and crime commissioner, Labour’s David Jamieson, Malthouse “brushed the concerns away”. Jamieson said: “The issue was raised and it is total madness, we all know it’s madness. Some of his [Malthouse’s] Conservative colleagues raised it as well, particularly those on the coast.” The following day a major incident was declared after tens of thousands of people defied pleas to stay away and descended on beaches in Bournemouth, while police were attacked at illegal street parties in Brixton and Notting Hill in London. As forces on Saturday warned that people attending illegal raves over the weekend risked prosecution, new figures obtained by the Observer reveal that the free party scene has been on the rise long before the pandemic. Police forces across the UK reported a spike in unlicensed music events in 2018 and 2019. Gwent police reported no “suspected raves” in 2015, but saw 23 occur in 2018. Hertfordshire police attended just nine raves in 2016, but recorded 46 in the first nine months of last year. Bedfordshire police revealed a similar increase, with 17 raves in 2011 compared with 39 by 2017. In the south-west of England, where raves are large and frequent, Devon and Cornwall have recorded more than 200 free parties every year since 2015. The artist Jeremy Deller, who has frequently explored rave culture in his work, said that the conditions for another hedonistic summer were ripe: “There is a clear demand for something that is currently illicit again and the impulse is the same: congregation, community, enjoyment – now with the added frisson of lockdown.” The musician and DJ Ben Assiter, who is studying for a PhD on night-time culture in London, said the decimation of the city’s club scene was partly the cause. “The mainstream scene has been so boring and restricted for a while that the kind of hedonistic abandon glorified from the 90s doesn’t happen in places like [long-established club] Fabric.” The contemporary rave scene has reached a tipping point following the lockdown, he said, citing social unrest, the need for release and a febrile political mood. “The context is different now,” Assiter said. “In the late 80s, it was the opposite: young people were sick of politics. Now we’re seeing a whole new politicisation of young people.” He added: “I love raving but I’m hoping some of the energy this summer will translate into Black Lives Matter and protests.” Jamieson said that the government should have planned to reopen pubs midweek or on a Monday in order to better manage pent-up demand and levels of emotion. “We’re not against lifting the lockdown – it’s the way that we do it. To actually open the pubs on a midsummer Saturday night strikes me as a decision from people who are disastrously out of touch with reality. It’s going to be very challenging – very, very challenging – that weekend,” Jamieson warned. He also took issue with Boris Johnson’s language last Tuesday when the prime minister announced the easing of restrictions, in particular his promise to take England out of “national hibernation”. Another Labour police and crime commissioner, Kim McGuinness from Northumbria, questioned the need for Johnson to have made the announcement so far in advance. “I do think we’ve seen people’s behaviour change because of that messaging,” she said. Jamieson added: “What they’re doing is irresponsible. They [the government] just haven’t thought it through – they’ve thought through the politics of it but [not] the wider consequences for society.” A Home Office spokesperson said: “We recognise that as restrictions are carefully eased, we are trusting the public to comply with more subtle social restrictions. There is no excuse for violence, vandalism or disorderly behaviour and the police have our full support in cracking down on those who flout restrictions.”