n his last moments as the political leader of Ireland, Leo Varadkar, a man whose government spent millions setting up a strategic communications unit to boost its public image, lambasted Mary Lou McDonald, the new leader of the opposition and president of Sinn Féin, for speaking what he called “a load of spin and nonsense” about change. Her party, the left-leaning former political wing of the IRA, had won the most votes in a seismic election 140 days before, appealing to voters on issues of housing and health. It realigned Irish politics at a time of unprecedented global change. But the two centre-right parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, historically opposed since the civil war and which have held power consecutively for nearly a century, refused to enter talks, calling Sinn Féin “undemocratic”. Instead, they went into government together. Everyone in Ireland is talking about “change”, but what this means depends on who’s speaking. Due to the pandemic, the last few months have brought more change than many thought possible. Ireland went to the polls in the midst of an economic boom. But exit polls showed the majority of people still couldn’t feel the recovery. Young people overwhelmingly voted against the two centre-right parties. Voters told me they wanted change. They wanted to be able to afford a place to live, have access to healthcare and an end to zero-hour contracts. A decade after the country was plunged into austerity, the Fianna Fáil party that led Ireland into the crash, failing to properly regulate banks or developers, is back in power. A recent poll put Fianna Fáil’s support at only 13%. But its leader, Michéal Martin, is now taoiseach and the party is in charge of housing and health. Fine Gael, which expected developers and landlords to solve Ireland’s infamous housing crisis, is leading on finance and enterprise. When rumblings of the Sinn Féin surge first began earlier this year, Saoirse McHugh, a young candidate for the Green party who lives on Achill, a small island battered by worsening storms, hoped Ireland might finally get a left-led coalition. But she suspected Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael might instead form a coalition together and look to the Greens for support. She predicted right. Last week, Green party members voted to join the three-way coalition. The decision divided the party, with McHugh and others opposed to the deal on the basis that it failed to protect the most vulnerable in society. She believes parties “ideologically wedded to market mechanisms” will never protect people or the environment. She warns that if the Green party becomes a “fig leaf” for harmful policies it will not only undermine her party, which was decimated after going in with the last Fianna Fáil government, but also the future of environmentalism. Many worry this coalition will mean a greenwashed “austerity on bikes”, prioritising a return to rapid economic growth by any means, despite the pandemic making many reassess the harms of a system rigged for profit. A “radical and far-reaching” stimulus programme is planned, with half a billion euros promised for Varadkar’s enterprise department, providing state aid for businesses. Greens who opposed the deal have already challenged him on whether the most carbon-intensive sections of the economy will be made to commit to emissions targets if they receive public bailouts. McDonald promised Sinn Féin would provide “one hell of an opposition”. Her party promises to “transform society” through a single-tier public health service and build “the biggest number of houses in the history of the state”. Sinn Féin wrote to the new housing minister about a report by the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission on the state’s over-reliance on the private rental market and lack of social homes, concluding that Ireland needs a constitutional right to housing. The right to housing is a goal that unites the left. The grassroots political movements that mobilised for marriage equality and repealing Ireland’s abortion ban achieved real and radical change. They can again. Black Lives Matter protests in Ireland showed that potential. The fate of the United Kingdom could also be in the balance when it comes to political change here. Varadkar’s handling of the pandemic at its height was highly rated in Northern Ireland; he proved strangely popular among unionists. If the coalition collapses and Sinn Féin improves on its success in the next election, the party could be in government both sides of the border in Ireland; demand for a vote on reunification would be strong. But Fine Gael, which has managed to maintain power beyond the odds, also still claims to want a united Ireland, even if it doesn’t want a border poll right now. The “shared future” that Ireland’s new coalition government says it is working towards could still have radical change on the horizon – or just more spin. • Caelainn Hogan is an Irish journalist and author of Republic of Shame