No new coronavirus deaths in Scotland There were no new Covid-19 deaths in the last day in Scotland - meaning the hospital death toll remains at 2,491. Those testing positive for the virus are up to 18,401, a rise of 17 on yesterday. Scotland recorded its first coronavirus related death in eight days on Thursday. Prof Sheila Bird, from the MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge MRC Biostatistics Unit, said the daily coronavirus death toll compiled by Public Health England under counts the true numbers, despite new concerns about exaggerated figures. For England & Wales, authoritative figures on Covid-mention deaths (bar those referred to coroners and not yet registered) are reported weekly by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Tuesday’s report accounted for 50,548 Covid-mention deaths registered by 3 July 2020 with ONS for England & Wales. By comparison, the daily cumulative count of confirmed covid deaths is something of an undercount. I think it important that in reporting on Covid-19 deaths, journalists set the daily count against the larger backdrop of the latest ONS count along with the cumulative count of excess deaths from early March (also from ONS). Few news reports report all three –perhaps because the ONS’s counts are released only weekly. However, they give a more complete picture on a weekly basis than does the daily reporting of a subset of COVID-mention deaths. The daily tallies are themselves subject to reporting-delay . Public Health England may, in effect, be following-up a national virtual cohort, namely: England’s cohort of persons who ever tested positive for Sars-CoV-2. Follow-up for all-cause and cause-specific mortality in distinct epochs of time after swab-date is prudent. Indeed, this type of record-linkage study for the short and longer-term fatal effects of COVID-19 disease has considerable merit in its own right. The problem comes if PHE does not make clear whether the deaths they report are COVID-mention on death certification; and in which epoch of follow-up (1st 4-weeks, next 8-weeks, weeks 12-26 weeks after swab-date) the death occurred. The Local Government Association has urged ministers to only use new powers to impose local lockdowns as a last resort. Its James Jamieson said: Greater powers for councils to take swift and effective action to address local outbreaks will hopefully help avoid the need for more stringent measures to be imposed locally. Managing local Covid-19 outbreaks will always need to build on the consent of local communities and an effective system of tracing and testing. The use of enforcement powers should be an option of last resort where individuals or organisations are unable, unwilling or opposed to taking actions that reduce the spread of this virus. “Data flow to councils has improved, including the introduction of daily updates. Further improvements to this, including granular-level data, to councils are still needed so they are better able to act in real time to increases in infection rates and help prevent the spread of further infection. This would help councils be even more prepared ahead of any possible deadly second wave of Covid-19. Mark Drakeford, the first minister of Wales, described Johnson’s prediction that there may be a return to normality by Christmas as “a pretty sunny view of circumstances”. Drakeford referenced reports that predicted a “worse experience” in the winter than in the spring due to the way Covid-19 circulates. He said: While we are able to, we will go on unlocking lockdown measures in Wales and return us to something that looks a bit more like things were before the virus hit. Can we be confident that in the depths of winter we will still be in a position to go on doing that? I think you have to take a pretty optimistic view of the advice that we have had to think that is a realistic proposition. The government has been accused of “passing the buck” to employers on the decision around returning to work, as organisations warned “significant” caution remains among employees, PA reports. The TUC said there is a lot of work for employers to do before they can reopen the workplace, including risk assessments and consultations with unions. General secretary Frances O’Grady said: We all want to get the economy up and running as quickly as possible. Returns to workplaces must happen in a phased and safe way. The government is passing the buck on this big decision to employers. The Federation of Small Businesses said some employers will be concerned that the government appears to be “reducing its direction” as restrictions are lifted. National chairman Mike Cherry said: Many will be feeling hopeful following the Prime Minister’s intervention today - especially those across England that rely on commuter footfall, host events or conduct face-to-face beauty treatments. But others will worry that the Government is reducing its direction on the unlocking process, in contrast to how it managed the lockdown. British Chambers of Commerce director general Adam Marshall said “crystal clear” guidance is needed for employers to decide on reopening offices. He said other factors such as schools reopening, childcare and the capacity of public transport will all influence decisions on people coming back to work. While some businesses want to return and will welcome the PM’s announcement, others are less keen, Edwin Morgan, director of policy at the Institute of Directors, said. While we have heard from businesses who are keen to return to offices, there is also a significant amount of caution out there. Directors need to balance the risks, and won’t want to increase the possibility of closures down the line by rushing back. As the prime minister emphasised, employers will have to consider their own circumstances, and some of the behaviour changes from coronavirus may be long-lasting. Similarly, HR body CIPD said a recent survey it had done showed some employers plan to double the proportion of staff who work from home regularly beyond the pandemic. The findings of a separate survey of more than 1,000 employees suggested almost half (49%) of people who are not currently attending their workplace are anxious about returning, it said. The National Association of Head Teachers said parents must feel confident for their children to go back to school before they will be able to return to work. Nick Brook, deputy general secretary of the school leaders’ union, said: We’ve seen already that a significant number of parents do not yet have that confidence. Over the summer, we need to see as much effort from Government in communicating a ‘back to school’ message as was first invested in the ‘stay at home’ instruction. The Labour leader, Keir Starmer, said it was vital that Johnson’s plan was endorsed by experts in order to win public confidence. He said: This can’t be done on a wing and a prayer. It requires a credible plan and national leaders. Sir Patrick Vallance’s caution over people returning to work may have scuppered Johnson’s plans to be more forthright about encouraging people to go back in August. The chief scientist told MPs on Thursday that he saw no reason for people to stop working from home. Vallance’s intervention might explain Johnson’s mixed messages on public transport and his shifting of the onus on to employers about whether staff should return to offices or continue to work from home. Vallance will get an early chance to react to Johnson’s more nuanced than expected remarks on the issue. He is due to appear with the chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, at the Lords science and technology committee at 3pm. Many have picked up on Johnson’s comments about grandparents looking after children and have questioned whether the prime minister understands the rules about household bubbles. In answer to a question from Victoria from Tadcaster, Johnson suggested social distancing didn’t apply for grandparents looking after children if they were treated as a household bubble. This interpretation has been widely challenged. According to Victoria’s question, as read out by Johnson, she asked: You’re urging people to go back to work if they can. However our main childcare providers are grandparents. That means we must stay 1 metre [away] within households. Do you plan to scrap the 1 metre distance rule within households and allow them to provide childcare and in turn, more people will be able to return to work? Johnson replied: I think your children’s grandparents would count as part of the bubble that you’re forming as it were within with two households indoors. So I think you’d be OK and you’d continue to be OK with those childcare arrangements within your household. What we’re trying to say about the 1 metre rule generally, and social distancing generally, is that clearly looking through to the spring looking through to the long term, social distancing will continue to have [impacts] on many sectors of the UK economy. We hope that by November at the earliest, if we can continue to make progress in our struggle against the virus, then its conceivably possible to move away from the social distancing measures, from the 1 metre rule. Here’s video of Johnson shifting the onus on to employers on whether to reopen offices. The Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, is giving the last of the daily coronavirus press conferences in Wales. From next week it will be replaced with a weekly one each Tuesday. He marked the event by looking back on the crisis. Drakeford said: “A great many sad things have happened here in Wales. Livelihoods and businesses have been lost, children’s education has been affected, families have been unable to see loved ones and more than 2,400 people have died from coronavirus in Wales alone.” But he added: The worst of those fears we had at the start of the crisis, those worst fears have been averted ... In the last week we’ve had several days when there have been no new reported deaths at all.” While coronavirus is and has been in retreat in Wales, that crisis is not over. Boris Johnson has set out the next steps for England’s coronavirus response, unveiling measures that will allow ministers to shut down entire sectors in areas or issue local stay-at-home orders. Here’s are the main points from Johnson’s announcement: A shift from blanket national measures to local responses At the start of the pandemic, we knew far less about the nature and the spread of the virus and we had to take blanket national measures. National lockdown was undoubtedly the right thing to do and saved many thousands of lives. Now our intelligence on where it is spreading is vastly improved. That means we can control it through targeted local action instead. Johnson announced a “framework for containing and controlling future outbreaks in England” to give councils new powers in their areas for controlling the local outbreaks. Minister will get powers to order lightning local lockdowns From Saturday, councils will be able close specific premises, shut public outdoor spaces and cancel events. But central government will also be given the power to intervene in areas. Johnson said: Where justified by the evidence, ministers will be able to close whole sectors, or types of premises in an area. Introduce local stay at home orders, prevent people entering or leaving defined areas; reduce the maximum size of gatherings beyond national rules, or restrict transport systems serving local areas. Making 500,000 tests a day available before winter As we approach winter, we will need to go further, not least as many more people will show Covid-like symptoms as a result of seasonal illnesses, and therefore require a test. So we will further increase testing capacity to at least half a million antigen tests a day and 3.5m antigen tests a week by the end of October. Warning that the second wave could be more ‘virulent’ It’s possible that the virus will be more virulent in the winter months. And it’s certain that the NHS will face the usual annual winter pressures. A flu vaccine programme and £3bn for the NHS We will be rolling out the biggest ever flu vaccination programme in the history of the UK. I can confirm that we’re providing an additional £3bn of funding for the NHS in England to get ready for winter. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will also receive additional funds. This will allow the NHS to continue to use the extra hospital capacity acquired from the independent sector, and also to maintain the Nightingale hospitals, until the end of March. ‘Anybody may use public transport’ Johnson was equivocal about using public transport. He said: “We are making clear that anybody may use public transport, while of course encouraging people to consider alternative means of transport, where they’re available.” Encouraging a return to work in August From 1 August the stay-at-home advice will change, but it will be up to employers to decide whether to open up offices. Johnson said: We’re going to give employers more discretion and ask them to make decisions about how their staff can work safely. That could mean, of course, continuing to work from home which is one way of working safely and which has worked for many employers and employees. Or it could mean making workplaces safe, by following Covid-19 secure guidelines. Whatever employers decide they should consult closely with their employees, and only ask people to return to their place of work if it is safe. Skating rinks and casinos to open but nightclubs to stay closed From 1 August, we will reopen most remaining leisure settings, namely bowling, skating rinks, casinos, and we will enable close contacts services – beauticians to resume. Nightclubs and soft-play areas sadly need to remain closed. Indoor performances to resume We will restart indoor performances to a live audience, subject to the success of pilots. And we will also pilot larger gatherings in venues like sports stadia with a view to a wider reopening in the autumn. We will also allow wedding receptions for up to 30 people. All of these measures from 1 August should be done in a Covid-secure way. From October, we intend to bring back audiences in stadia, and to allow conferences and other business events to recommence. An aspiration for ‘normality’ by Christmas Throughout this period we will look to allow more close contact between friends and family, where we can. It is my strong and sincere hope that we will be able to review the outstanding restrictions and allow a more significant return to normality from November at the earliest possibly in time for Christmas. Q: Are you the biggest threat to the union of Scotland and England? Johnson says it’s thanks to the strength of the union that we’ve been able to muster the strength of the response that we have. Q: How optimistic are you that families will be able to spend Christmas together? Johnson says: You’ve got it completely right about Christmas, because it’s not only a very important time of year for the families, it’s also a very important time of year for the UK economy, and for many many millions of people working in all kinds of sectors. It is important that we hope for the best. But plan for the worst. Q: How can you restore confidence in government? In the end, the real secret is the common sense and the collective action of the British people. Q: How many civil servants should return to work? Johnson says: I think there’s a balance and we’ve learned huge lessons throughout this crisis about the potential of technology, but I think there are also limits. Sometimes there is no substitute for face-to-face meetings and interactions, so that’s what many many employers will be starting to say from the first of August, there is balance to be struck. Q: Vallance said there is no need to change the stay at home advice, so why change it? If the place of work is Covid-secure then in our view it is safe, Johnson says. Whether they need to go into work is not something that the government can decide. But in the end, human interaction, face-to-face conversations are important. Q: Why ease lockdowns when there is a risk a second wave could be more virulent? Johnson says: “The chief scientific adviser and the chief medical officer give us advice, which we of course take very, very seriously. But in the end decisions are taken by the elected politicians, we have to weigh the advice that we get.” Q: Should employers do more to encourage workers back to work in August, and how does that square with Patrick Vallance’s view? Johnson says he totally agrees with Vallance. It is very much for companies to decide whether employees come into the office. There should be discussions between employers and staff about how they think people could be most productive. If the place of work is safe they should come in, but that is not for the government to decide. Q: Is there a problem with Public Health England figures on Covid-19 deaths? Johnson says Hancock has promised a review.