For the first time since the war on Gaza in 2014, the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled its willingness to engage in negotiations regarding the release of the bodies of two Israeli soldiers believed to be held by resistance groups in Gaza. But will a prisoner exchange similar to that of October 2011 follow anytime soon? On July 9, Palestinian and Israeli media reported on an Israeli government communication sent to the Palestinian group Hamas through an intermediary. It included an offer to swap the bodies of Palestinians held in Israel for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers, Oron Shaul and Hadar Goldin. Alternatively, Israel is offering to release some of the Palestinian prisoners it holds, as long as they have “no blood on their hands” — an Israeli reference to Palestinian prisoners who have not taken part in direct attacks that may have led to the killing of Israeli occupation soldiers or armed illegal Jewish settlers. Hamas and others quickly dismissed the proposal as a non-starter for a serious negotiation. The Palestinian group had already indicated that it would not negotiate any prisoner exchange deal with Israel until the latter releases the scores of Palestinian prisoners who were rearrested in the months and years following the 2011 exchange. What was termed by Israel as the “Gilad Shalit deal” saw 1,027 Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for the return of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who was captured by Palestinian fighters near the Gaza-Israel fence in 2006. However, even as Palestinians were still celebrating the return of hundreds of their loved ones, Israel began rearresting many of the newly released prisoners under various pretenses, rendering the entire exercise futile. Moreover, Israel quickly began replenishing its prisons with new arrivals from various Palestinian factions, genders and age groups. In the 2011 exchange, Israel also refused to release senior Palestinian political figures from groups such as Fatah, Hamas, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), and Islamic Jihad. This decision derailed the negotiations for months and was understood to be Israel’s way of holding on to many prominent Palestinian figures as bargaining chips for future negotiations. These figures include Fatah’s most popular leader, Marwan Barghouti, and PFLP leader Ahmad Sa’adat. In 2014, Israel rearrested Nael Barghouti from his home in Kobar, near Ramallah. He has been held in Israeli prisons longer than any other Palestinian and is a particularly important bargaining chip for Israel. The reason that Israel is quite generous in these prisoner exchanges is not due, as some claim, to the notion that it values the life of its citizens to the extent that it is willing to exchange them with a disproportionately large number of Palestinians. If that logic was correct, why does Israel transfer its own citizens, including children, to dangerous and highly militarized illegal West Bank settlements? If Israel truly valued the lives of its citizens, it would have long ago dismantled the illegal settlements and tried in earnest to reach a just peace agreement with the Palestinian leadership. Instead, Israeli leaders — who often trigger wars for their own political benefits, as Netanyahu has done repeatedly in the past — use prisoner exchanges as a means to garner positive political capital and favorable media coverage. Netanyahu, whose image has been significantly tarnished due to his ongoing corruption investigation and trial, is laboring to divert attention away from his personal woes. Now that his scheme to illegally annex West Bank land has been postponed, he is in desperate need of another battle that would present him as some kind of hero in the eyes of Israelis, especially his right-wing constituency. Aside from the bodies of the two soldiers, another pair of Israelis — Avera Mengistu and Hisham Al-Sayed, who allegedly crossed the border into Gaza by mistake — are also being held in the Strip. Potential television footage of two coffins, draped in Israeli flags, along with two other Israelis being set free, would certainly prove to be a huge boost for the embattled Israeli leader. Palestinian groups in Gaza understand this well. They also know that another opportunity of this nature might not present itself for years. Therefore, they are keen to ensure any future prisoner exchange satisfies three key demands: The release of all prisoners rearrested since 2011; the release of as many Israeli leaders use prisoner exchanges as a means to garner positive political capital and favorable media coverage. Ramzy Baroud Palestinians as possible out of the 5,000-plus currently held in Israeli prisons; and the release of the top Palestinian prisoners representing the various political and Islamic factions. The final point, in particular, is significant because traditional rivals Hamas and Fatah recently actively pursued a politically united front in the face of the imminent threat of Israel’s annexation of nearly 30 percent of the West Bank. The release of top Fatah leaders, such as Barghouti, for example, would have an immense positive impact on the Palestinian public mood, especially among Fatah supporters, boosting the unity talks like never before. Israel, of course, will do its utmost to prevent Palestinians from unifying their political ranks. However, considering the fact that the Palestinians are holding four Israelis in Gaza, the cards are not entirely in Netanyahu’s favor. This is not to suggest that Palestinian groups are not feeling the pressure too. The families of thousands of imprisoned Palestinians are desperate for some good news regarding their loved ones, especially as the health conditions among prisoners are deteriorating due to the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. On July 9, inmate Saadi Al-Gharably died at Rehovot’s Kaplan Medical Center due to what a Palestinian prisoners’ advocacy group described as “medical neglect.” A few days later, another prisoner, Kamal Abu Wa’ar, a cancer patient from the Jenin area, tested positive for COVID-19. Various signs indicate that a prisoner exchange between Israel and Palestinian groups is drawing near. The question is, will Netanyahu unleash his winning political card now or will he wait until later, when he needs it more? Ramzy Baroud is a journalist and editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of five books. His latest is “These Chains Will Be Broken: Palestinian Stories of Struggle and Defiance in Israeli Prisons” (Clarity Press, Atlanta). Twitter: @RamzyBaroud Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view