Headteachers are considering challenging unusually high GCSE results, accusing the algorithm of injecting grade inflation as pupils round the country celebrate and the government’s exams fiasco continues to snowball. Heads in England reported bizarre anomalies as record results were published, with pupils unexpectedly upgraded beyond their school-assessed grade, raising fears they could subsequently end up on unsuitable courses which could set them up for failure. Sixth-form colleges meanwhile were bracing themselves for a surge in applications as more pupils achieved the required grades to progress to A-levels. Thursday’s GCSE results were mainly derived from assessments made by teachers and schools, known as centre-assessed grades (CAGs), after the algorithm used by the exams regulator Ofqual was largely ditched following the furore over downgraded A-levels. Grades generated by the algorithm were only retained if they were higher than the school-assessed grade. Schools reported that this led to large numbers of CAGs being raised. Philip Jones, the headteacher of Ferndown upper school in Dorset said that more than 300 grades at his school – about 15% – had been raised, some by two grades. “We thought the CAGs were fair. It’s put us in quite a difficult position,” he said. Perplexed heads said some pupils were given higher grades than they could possibly have achieved had they actually sat the paper. Students entered for foundation-tier papers were awarded a 6 by the algorithm, when the maximum possible grade was 5. Elsewhere there were reports that a pupil in West Yorkshire who was forecast a grade of level 1 in a subject had been upgraded to an 8 after the Ofqual moderating process. At the same school, 12 students studying a subject were awarded results that were four grades higher than the CAGs. According to figures released by Ofqual, the proportion of the highest GCSE grades awarded in England this year jumped by 26%. Based on school-assessed grades in most cases, the proportion of grades 7, 8 and 9 – equivalent to the old A and A* grades – awarded to Year 11 pupils rose from 21.9% last year to 27.6% this year. The proportion of entries awarded the highest grade, 9, also rose from 4.7% last year to 6.6% this year, according to Ofqual. In all cases the proportion of higher grades awarded would have set new records had they been sat under exam conditions. James Kewin, deputy chief executive of the Sixth Form Colleges Association, warned of a scramble for places at already oversubscribed colleges. “It is likely that there will be an increased demand for places in sixth-form colleges … at a time when colleges will be struggling with social distancing requirements,” he said. Geoff Barton, the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, accused the government of adding to grade inflation by allowing higher algorithm grades to stand rather than relying just on teacher assessment. Students would now sign up for courses for which they were not equipped. “The risk is that it sets them up for failure,” he said. Sam Freedman, a former Department for Education adviser, also highlighted the issue in a Twitter thread: “Even had a couple of heads suggesting they want to appeal some extreme upgrades (e.g. 1-5) because it will set such unrealistic expectations.” According to Ofqual, pupils achieving a 4 or above, equivalent to a C or above under the previous measure, rose substantially from 70% to 79% in England. Ofqual also released the new, centre-assessed A-level grades being awarded to sixth-formers in England. The proportion of top marks, A* and A, increased 13 percentage points to 38%, while the proportion gaining grade C and above rose to 87.5% from 75.5%. The new figures also showed that as many as one in four students would have missed out on a C grade or better if the algorithm had been retained in place of A-levels assigned by schools, and that there were 68,095 more A* - C grades issued by teachers than the algorithm. Ofqual also confirmed that pupils would not be able to appeal against their assessments for A-levels or GCSEs unless they were concerned about bias or discrimination. In Wales the exam regulator Qualifications Wales said its revised GCSE results were “substantially higher” than in recent years. Nearly 26% gained A* or A grades, compared with 18% in 2019. And 74.5% of students received A*-C grades, compared with 62.8% last year. Qualifications Wales also revealed higher A-level results, following the decision by the Welsh government to also use school-level assessments. In Northern Ireland, 37% of entries achieved A*-A grades, up by six percentage points from 2019, while the proportion gaining grades C and above reached more than 89%. Hundreds of thousands of students who were to get their results for BTec vocational qualifications – at both level 2 and level 3 – did not receive them, after the exam board Pearson made a late decision to overhaul BTec grades in favour of school assessments. Exam results – the winners and losers Winners High-flyers got a boost in their A-level results a week after first receiving them. Ofqual issued a new set using school assessments rather than its algorithm, and the net result was an almost doubling in the rate of A* grades awarded. Last year 7.7% of entries received A*s in England, this year the rate has shot up to 14.3%. Pupils taking German saw some of the largest gains in the GCSE results, especially among those awarded a 7 or higher, thanks to Ofqual’s desire to “make an adjustment to the grading standards”. For several years German and French have been regarded as “difficult” subjects at GCSEs and A-levels, because of rigorous marking, but that may be changing: GCSE Spanish entries passed 100,000 for the first time since 2011. For one school the Ofqual algorithm proved to be a generous marker: after regularly having native speakers among those taking French GCSE, it didn’t have any this year. However, this year’s pupils saw their awards upgraded by up to four places because of the school’s previous excellent track record in the subject. Year 11 students taking GCSE papers in physics, biology and chemistry saw more than half of all entries receive 7s or better. Meanwhile, subjects such as astronomy, performing arts, engineering and drama saw schools award relatively more top grades this year than subjects with larger cohorts. Losers Students hoping to see their results for BTec or Cambridge National vocational qualifications were forced to wait until next week. But the big loser here is Pearson, the exam board that runs Btecs, whose algorithm for awarding grades was even more chaotic. Next year the new T-level qualifications will cut into Pearson’s market for A-level equivalent vocational courses. Nick Gibb, the schools minister for England, sought to apologise to the pupils receiving their GCSE results today, saying “how sorry I am for the pain, the anxiety and the uncertainty that they will have suffered as a consequence of the grading issues we encountered last week”. Fans of articles detailing the extraordinary exam results achieved by triplets or great-nieces of Sir Winston Churchill and other celebrities will have been disappointed: Covid-19 restrictions meant many schools did not allow pupils into school to collect their results. Even independent schools opted not to trumpet their results in a year where many schools did better than ever.