The largest demonstrations in the history of Belarus may tempt many to view this as a seminal challenge not just to the 26-year-old regime of Alexander Lukashenko, but also to President Vladimir Putin of Russia. As desirable an outcome as this may be, a cautionary note is warranted. Recent history shows that Putin will call the shots, maybe literally. And while he may be content to dispense with an ailing Belarusian dictator whose shelf life has probably expired, he will not allow Belarus to slip from his grasp. Putin, along with many Russians, views Belarus almost as part of Russia, much in the same way as he did Ukraine, Crimea and Georgia. His determined ambition is to thwart any expansion of NATO or the EU eastwards — an aim he is prepared to back up with military force. Neither the EU nor the US will commit militarily to prevent this, not least in the current circumstances. President Donald Trump has yet to even comment on the events in Minsk. Only extraordinary circumstances would see Belarus drift into the arms of the West. Any drastic intervention would require the sort of unity and determination that has been all too lacking in international affairs for some years. Key powers are as divided on this as they are on the fate of Syria or Libya. They are also more than a trifle nervous. President Emmanuel Macron of France was open about this, saying: “We don’t want a repeat of what happened in Ukraine… all external intervention in Belarus, starting with Russian forces, military or police, would breach international rules and internationalize this conflict.” But it is Germany not France that many in Belarus will be looking to for support. However, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s language did not hint at any forceful position when she stated: “I hope that (the new Russian) troops won’t be deployed.” One doubts too many fingernails were being bitten in the Kremlin. For good measure, Merkel ruled out pulling out of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. German-Russian relations are particularly strained at the moment following the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, a leading opponent and critic of Putin. Navalny is being treated in a Berlin hospital and is in an induced coma. But, as with other Russian “wet jobs” (assassination attempts on opponents), who really expects those responsible to be held accountable? Merkel knows this and will be wary of stoking a crisis. Key powers are as divided on this as they are on the fate of Syria or Libya. They are also more than a trifle nervous. Chris Doyle But the West and those who value peaceful, legitimate protest cannot just abandon the brave demonstrators in Belarus and watch from the sidelines. These fearless protesters have, for three weeks, thwarted all attempts by the regime to suppress their outrage at the rigged election of Aug. 9, when Lukashenko claimed an improbable 80 percent of the votes and a sixth election “victory.” The EU said the election was “neither free nor fair,” as did the US. The protest movement is not weakening despite the repressive measures being introduced, including mass arrests, a crackdown on foreign journalists, and the shutting down of the Internet. One demonstration in Minsk on Saturday was an all-female protest designed to undermine the regime’s narrative that extremists and mercenaries had orchestrated the unrest. Belarus has often been billed as the last dictatorship in Europe, though Lukashenko may not feel so lonely now, with Viktor Orban of Hungary veering all too close to that status and with authoritarian tendencies on the rise among many other leaders. With a population of about 10 million, Belarus is a small authoritarian state with few mineral resources and an unreformed economy. Belarusians may have had plenty to moan about in this unreformed backwater, but what triggered these protests was not just another rigged election — it was primarily the leadership’s catastrophic handling of the coronavirus disease epidemic. Lukashenko mimicked President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil by boasting that “no one will die of coronavirus in our country,” and advising his countrymen to have a sauna or to drink vodka “to poison the virus.” The state has been widely accused of lying about the true scale of the epidemic there. One error would be to assume that the fall of Lukashenko would lead to some Europeanization of Belarus. Russia and Belarus have a shared culture and history, buttressed by close military and economic ties, which would rule this out. Lukashenko is also no Putin puppet and has often infuriated his Russian counterpart. Yes, Belarus is dependent on Russia for subsidized oil and gas, cheap loans and trade deals, but the Belarusian leader has proved adept at playing Moscow off against the EU, much in the same way that Syria’s Bashar Assad plays Russia off against Iran. However, Lukashenko was clearly anxious after Putin intervened in Georgia and Ukraine and annexed Crimea, so he knows the limits of this game. Putin will not mind, therefore, that Lukashenko has been compelled to reach out to him for support to stave off the protesters. Putin is far too canny to provide that support for nothing or too easily, and will happily make Lukashenko sweat. This will be a delicious moment for the Russian leader to remind not just Lukashenko, but also other leaders dependent on him, of the need for total subservience to Moscow. He will also see this as a test of competence as to how Lukashenko handles this crisis, ideally by taming the protests without escalating the situation by invoking martial law or causing civil conflict. Putin prefers his dictators to be effective as well as obedient — a test that, in his view, Assad has failed many times over. A European overreaction would risk provoking the Russian bear into taking military action in Belarus that no external power would contest. But leaving the protesters alone to face the regime would send a worrying signal and embolden authoritarian tendencies, while alarming the Baltic states that are allergic to Russian ambitions. It would smack of yet more European feebleness. The likelihood is that Lukashenko will prove tough to topple, leaving the US and EU to revert to the tried and trusted tool of yet more sanctions: The policy approach adopted when there is no real policy. Perhaps the best hope is to encourage some murky middle ground of reforms in Belarus. The alternative would be a massive ratcheting up of repression or a very bloody battlefield in the streets of Minsk. Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view