“We are certainly observing a pattern that confounds us a little”: Epidemiology specialist Similar pattern can be seen in Yemen, where epidemic seems to have “passed” LONDON: The COVID-19 pandemic has peaked earlier than expected in many African countries, contrary to earlier predictions, experts have told British MPs. Scientists do not know the reason behind the early peaks, but one theory is that people in these countries have been exposed to other infections in the past and this has caused “pre-existing immunity to COVID-19,” The Guardian newspaper reported. A specialist in epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine told MPs it is “broadly” true that coronavirus has not behaved in expected ways in African countries including Sudan, Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania. “We are certainly observing a pattern that confounds us a little,” Prof. Francesco Checchi told an inquiry into the impact of the disease on humanitarian crises, which is being carried out by the UK’s international development committee. “In a few important case studies … what seems to be happening is the epidemic may be peaking earlier than our naive models predicted.” A similar pattern can be seen in Yemen, which “is one of the few countries where to my knowledge there is almost no prevention of COVID-19 transmission,” he said. “The anecdotal reports we’re getting inside Yemen are pretty consistent that the epidemic has ‘passed’,” he added. “There was a peak in May, June across Yemen, where hospitalization facilities were being overwhelmed. That is no longer the case.” Checchi said it is possible that the population had acquired a kind of herd immunity, at least temporarily. The theory that most of the population in countries where the pandemic peak had arrived before it was expected had temporary immunity has “radical implications,” for example on when to send children back to school, he added.