UPDATE 2-Brazil's central bank holds rates at 2.00%, keeps 'forward guidance' intact

  • 10/29/2020
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(Adds details on policy, inflation, quotes) BRASILIA, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Brazil’s central bank kept its key interest rate at a record-low 2.00% on Wednesday, maintaining its “forward guidance” pledge to keep rates lower for longer and even the possibility of further easing, despite the recent rise in inflation and fiscal risks. In a statement accompanying the unanimous decision, the bank’s rate-setting committee known as ‘Copom’ said inflation expectations and forecasts remained “significantly” below target, and left the door open for further “small” cut or cuts. Copom said the recent spike in inflation due to food and oil prices and a persistently weak exchange rate is “temporary”, but will “closely monitor its evolution.” Many economists had expected a more hawkish statement, especially on the threat to longer-term inflation expectations from growing uncertainty surrounding the government’s ability - or willingness - to get the public finances back on track. “It was more dovish than expected. The central bank tried to downplay the inflation shock, there was less emphasis on fiscal risks (than expected), and it left the door open to another rate cut,” said Solange Srour, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Brazil. “This possibility does not exist, the market does not see this probability,” she said of another rate cut, noting that the rates curve is likely to steepen following Copom’s statement. The decision to hold the Selic rate at 2.00% was expected by all 31 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll. Brazil’s economy is undergoing an “uneven” recovery and uncertainty about growth remains high, Copom said, especially when emergency transfer programs are scheduled to expire at the end of the year. Copom said conditions for its forward guidance remained in place.

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