TREASURIES-Yields rise on jobs data as election results inch closer to Biden win

  • 11/6/2020
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(Recasts, updates yields, adds analyst comments, McConnell remarks) By Karen Pierog CHICAGO, Nov 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose on Friday while the market kept a close eye on the latest election developments that showed Democrat Joe Biden on the verge of winning the presidency. The benchmark 10-year yield, which reached a session high of 0.837%, was last up 4 basis points at 0.8185%. The 30-year yield, which climbed as high as 1.619%, was last up 5.2 basis points at 1.5966%. Biden expanded his narrow leads over Republican President Donald Trump in Georgia and Pennsylvania, where a win would put the Democrat over the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency. Jim Vogel, senior rates strategist, at FHN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee, said greater clarity on the election helped lift yields. "That took away an element of uncertainty that had perhaps held yields down in that mid-70"s (basis point) kind of range on (10-year notes)," he said. Yields also climbed after the U.S. Labor Department"s closely watched employment report showed the unemployment rate fell to a lower-than-expected 6.9% in October from 7.9% in September, although a 638,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls was the smallest gain since a jobs recovery started in May. "It"s clearly a good sign for the economy, so it would put upward pressure on yields," said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics in Boulder, Colorado. Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Friday used the drop in the unemployment rate to bolster his argument for a smaller stimulus package to aid the coronavirus-battered economy. Yields have been on a roller-coaster ride this week. The market, which had positioned for a Democratic sweep along with massive stimulus spending to result from Tuesday"s national elections, later recalibrated for a split government scenario with a slimmed-down aid plan. Meanwhile, potential runoffs in Georgia could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. The coming week will bring a burst of supply with $54 billion of three-year notes offered on Monday, $41 billion of 10-year notes on Tuesday and $27 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday. "The expectation is that we"ll get through them without too much problem, and maybe a band of probably plus-5 basis points to minus-2 basis points, somewhere around there on both (10-year notes and 30-year bonds)," Vogel said. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes steepened. It was last up 4.4 basis points at 66 basis points. It had widened to as much as 77 basis points on Wednesday. November 6 Friday 3:04PM New York / 2104 GMT Price Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.09 0.0913 0.000 Six-month bills 0.1 0.1014 0.005 Two-year note 99-241/256 0.1547 0.004 Three-year note 99-198/256 0.2026 0.011 Five-year note 99-116/256 0.361 0.026 Seven-year note 99-96/256 0.5916 0.033 10-year note 98-48/256 0.8185 0.040 20-year bond 95-212/256 1.3665 0.049 30-year bond 94-196/256 1.5966 0.052 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 8.25 0.00 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 7.50 -0.25 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 6.00 -0.75 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 1.75 -1.00 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -33.00 -0.50 spread (Reporting by Karen Pierog in Chicago and Dhara Ranasinghe in London; Editing by Catherine Evans, Jonathan Oatis and Tom

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