Jordanians head to the polls on Tuesday for what observers predict will be one of the country’s most controversial legislative elections. At stake are 130 seats in the lower house of the nation’s parliament, which are being contested by more than 1,600 candidates, including 368 women, on 294 lists. Under the nation’s constitution the king appoints the prime minister and approves the Cabinet, in addition to appointing the 65 members of the upper house. Following the election the government will seek a vote of confidence from the lower house. The poll is going ahead despite growing public pressure to postpone it over concerns about critical spikes in coronavirus infections and mortality rates that rank Jordan high on the list of countries with the most cases relative to population size. The Independent Election Commission has promised that polling will be safe, but the public is not convinced and voter turnout is expected to be lower than it was in 2016. Research by election watchdog Rased found that 46 percent of the 4.5 million registered voters will not participate, and 57 percent of voters believe the next parliament will not be effective. Most candidates are running as independents, relying mostly on tribal bases with little or no affiliation to political parties. The Islamic Action Front, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, has assembled a broad civic alliance in the hopes of retaining or increasing its share of seats. It won 16 four years ago but observers believe that low turnout in urban areas, especially Amman and the Palestinian refugee camps, is likely to greatly reduce this number, perhaps to as few as two. The Islamists decided to contest the elections at a time when their ties to the government have deteriorated, following internal splits and a court ruling this year that ordered the Brotherhood to be dissolved. Their presence in the lower house is likely to be limited but it is the only option they have to remain part of the political process. A majority of young Jordanians are unlikely to vote, unimpressed with candidates’ slogans and manifestos that are general in theme and avoid tackling substantive issues, including political reforms. The government of former Prime Minister Omar Razzaz had promised to initiate such reforms, including changes to the controversial election laws which, despite being revised before the 2016 elections, remain a variation of the unpopular single-vote system. The system is based on open lists, which requires voters to choose one of the lists and then candidates from it. No one list is expected to win and voters are likely to choose the first name on a list. The electoral system in general has been criticized for having many failings, including the fact that urban areas, such as Amman and Zarqa, are less-well represented than rural areas with smaller populations — the system continues to favor non-urban areas for demographic and political reasons. Meanwhile, Jordanians blame the government for failing to control the pandemic and are critical of its insistence on holding elections at a time when confirmed cases are rising. The government has announced a four-day national lockdown after the election, a decision that has also been widely criticized on social media. The previous parliament was denounced by most Jordanians for its failure to scrutinize and challenge government decisions, especially with regard to deteriorating economic conditions and indicators. The pandemic has worsened the economic problems, with unemployment soaring to a historic high of 23 percent. There is no doubt that the national economy is the top issue for most Jordanians. The World Bank expects it to shrink by more than 3.5 percent this year. Meanwhile, the national debt is estimated at $43 billion, which is 101.7 percent of the estimated gross domestic product. Higher voter turnout is expected in rural areas, where tribal affiliations are strong. Candidates in urban areas are mostly businessmen and independents. Even at the tribal level, however, divisions are expected as younger candidates compete with elder figures from the same tribe. So why does the government insist on going ahead with a widely unpopular election in the middle of a worsening pandemic if, as is predicted, the resulting parliament will be weaker than the previous one? Aside from the Islamists there will be no independent opposition, and a number of independent candidates have been “advised” by the nation’s security apparatus not to run. The outcome is predictable and will not change the fact that Jordanians are becoming increasingly indifferent to the political process. Osama Al-Sharif The fact that the election is taking place a week after the US presidential election might offer a clue to the answer. It is believed that the regime expected Donald Trump to win a second term. This would have put more pressure on Jordan to accept Trump’s Middle East peace plan, which veers away from the traditional form of the two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Amman was also preparing to make some hard and painful decisions about the fate of Palestinian refugees in Jordan. A docile parliament would have been needed to endorse such decisions. Now that Trump is on the way out, however, Amman will be feeling a sense of relief. Nevertheless, the election will go ahead, despite public apathy. The outcome is predictable and will not change the fact that Jordanians are becoming increasingly indifferent to the political process. Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010 Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view