Iran’s state-owned news outlets have dedicated significant time and space this week to coverage of the US election. From the perspective of the regime in Tehran, Joe Biden’s projected victory over Donald Trump is definitely also a triumph for Iran. Headlines that appeared in state-controlled newspapers included: “World without Trump” (in Aftabe Yazd) and “Trump must leave” (Donyaye Eghtesad). Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei used the opportunity to call into question the legitimacy of democratic systems of governance and to send a warning to Iranians who oppose the theocratic establishment. He tweeted: “What a spectacle! One says this is the most fraudulent election in US history. Who says that? The president who is currently in office. His rival says Trump intends to rig the election! This is how #USElections & US democracy are.” Iran’s leaders cannot wait until Trump leaves the White House, because of the pressure and damage that his administration has inflicted on the regime. First Trump pulled the US out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. Then his administration reimposed primary and secondary sanctions on Iran’s energy, banking and shipping sectors. In the past two years, many Iranian officials and organizations have been added to the sanctions list. The killing of Qassem Soleimani was also a big blow to the regime, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies across the Middle East. The sanctions, in fact, have imposed significant pressure on the Iranian government, to such an extent that the country’s leaders had to cut funding to their allies, militias and terror groups. The state-controlled Syrian newspaper Al-Watan reported that Iran had also closed its line of credit to the Syrian government. After Trump implemented his “maximum pressure” policy against the regime in Tehran, Iran’s oil revenues and exports steadily declined. For example, prior to the US pulling out of the nuclear deal and taking a tougher stance on the ruling clerics, Iran was exporting more than 2.5 million barrels a day (bpd). Exports have since dropped to about 100,000 bpd, a decline of more than 95 percent. As a result of the pressure, the ruling clerics are facing one of the worst budget deficits in their four-decade history of being in power. The regime is currently running at a deficit of about $200 million a week and it is estimated that if the pressure on Tehran continues, it will reach a total of about $10 billion by March 2021. This will in turn increase inflation and devalue the currency even further, if the pressure on the regime persists. The current US administration’s policy toward Iran has made it extremely difficult for the regime to financially support its network of proxies. This shortfall might be why, for the first time in more than three decades, a Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has issued a public statement asking for donations to his group. The killing of Qassem Soleimani was a big blow to the regime, particularly the IRGC and its proxies across the Middle East. Dr. Majid Rafizadeh “The sanctions and terror lists are a form of warfare against the resistance and we must deal with them as such,” he said. “I announce today that we are in need of the support of our popular base. It is the responsibility of the Lebanese resistance, its popular base, its milieu” to battle these measures. He also acknowledged that the US sanctions are the primary reason for the group’s money problems, adding that the “financial difficulties that we may face are a result of this (financial) war” and not any “administrative defect.” In Yemen, the Houthi militias have also been sending text messages appealing for donations. The situation in Iran has become so dire that Rouhani has admitted that the regime is facing its worst economic crisis since its establishment in 1979. The national currency, the rial, has fallen to historic lows thanks to Washington’s maximum-pressure policy. As this pressure continued to mount, Tehran also faced a number of widespread protests that threatened the ruling clerics’ grip on power. As a result, it should not come as a surprise that the Iranian leaders feel relieved in the aftermath of the US election, after almost three years of unbearable pressure and sanctions. The Iranian regime is breathing a sigh of relief — but it is difficult to believe that the social, political and economic problems it faces will be resolved when the administration changes in Washington. Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view
مشاركة :