From the moment Israel’s current coalition government was formed, the question on everyone’s lips has been: How long will this unlikely partnership last? For some, it is surprising that the Benjamin Netanyahu-Benny Gantz show is still in town, while for others the most generous forecast is that this government will last until the summer of 2021. Coalition governments are never an easy framework for governing a country, as they are an imposition by an indecisive electorate that does not want one party alone having the power to form cross-party administrations. This imposed political cohabitation is, at best, a constructive and pragmatic compromise and, at worst, a recipe for constant friction and even paralysis. However, the current Israeli coalition is in a league of its own for dysfunctionality and the deep distrust that almost everyone has of Netanyahu’s motives, especially Blue and White and its leader Gantz. Above this government hangs the massive dark cloud of the prime minister’s trial on counts of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, which in January will hear the first witness testimonies. Ever since the decision to indict Netanyahu was taken, he has subordinated the entire political system, and the country, to his dishonest and damaging attempts to both evade this trial and also escape indictment on further corruption charges. For Netanyahu, the clock is ticking way too quickly, not only until the resumption of his trial but also the pending rotation of the prime minister’s role with Gantz, which for him are linked issues. By now, Gantz must be under no illusion that Netanyahu has no intention of abiding by the rotation agreement and handing over the premiership to him. Netanyahu is looking for any chance to instigate a crisis that will allow him to call for fresh elections, following which, if he should emerge victorious, he will legislate for his immunity from prosecution for as long as he remains in power, which in his view should be as long as he lives. However, the coronavirus disease threw a spanner in the works of Netanyahu’s grand plan, as it has proved that viruses, unlike politics, can be difficult to manipulate for personal gain, and the current pandemic has proved to be an extremely revealing litmus test of good and bad leadership, with Netanyahu proving he belongs to the latter. He loves the world stage, and certainly the recent normalization agreements with the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan are impressive diplomatic achievements. He would also love to take the lion’s share of credit for containing Iran, whether in Syria or by the recent assassination of its top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, even if he can’t openly claim it as another feather in his cap to present to the Israeli electorate. However, he knows that elections are no longer won by success in international affairs and security issues alone: Such successes are a necessary condition but not a sufficient one. Netanyahu has not achieved an outright victory in any of the last three elections and has only managed to form a government against the odds due to the folly of Gantz and those in Blue and White who followed him into government — a move that can only be likened to a pod of whales stranding themselves on a beach as a result of a navigation error. Unlike whales, however, in Blue and White’s case it was mainly its loss of moral compass and judgment that has left the alliance high and dry, facing every chance of being decimated on the next occasion that Israel goes to the polls. Likud knows full well that the public is unhappy with the way the pandemic has been handled, the second wave in particular, and is likely to punish it at the ballot box. But if the electoral fate of Gantz and his party has already been signed and sealed, Netanyahu still believes he has another winning election campaign in him; one that will save him from conviction and a possible jail sentence. For this, he is relying not only on diplomatic successes, but also on a mass vaccination program before the next election and on the short memory of the public. Once again, he will be able to pretend to be the country’s savior rather than the cause of much of its misery. The man labeled the “crime minister” by those calling for him to stand down for the duration of his trial is currently facing a resurgent Blue and White, which is mounting a last-gasp effort to prevent him from dictating the national agenda to suit his personal and legal needs. The lingering “submarine affair” and Netanyahu’s role in it is providing Blue and White with a clear opportunity. Netanyahu has never been adequately investigated over this issue, though others have so far been charged in connection with it, and it is most probably a more serious case of alleged corruption than those he has already been indicted on. Netanyahu is looking for any chance to instigate a crisis that will allow him to call for fresh elections. Yossi Mekelberg There is a sense that a series of decisions with far-reaching strategic implications for the security of the country, involving contracts for building several submarines and patrol boats, were allegedly taken not for security reasons but instead to fill the pockets of Netanyahu’s cronies. Those allegations are by far the most serious that Netanyahu is facing, as they are not about his hedonism or obsession with controlling the media, but instead suggest that he may have compromised Israel’s national interest for the sake of greed. Gantz, who is beginning to find ways of dealing with the great manipulator of Israeli politics and the power he possesses in his role as defense minister, announced last week the establishment of a governmental commission of inquiry into the country’s procurement of those naval vessels. This was a direct sign to Netanyahu that the gloves are off between the two main coalition partners. And, since Gantz believes that the rotation of the premiership is no longer on the cards and the country will soon be heading to the polling stations once more, he has every reason to add to the current prime minister’s legal woes by uncovering the truth of how existential decisions are taken under Netanyahu. In the final analysis, the current Israeli government — one that was born in sin and cobbled together for the sole purpose of serving Netanyahu’s relentless and unscrupulous efforts to avoid facing justice — will come to an end in sin for exactly the same reason. Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view