The sense of sheer exhaustion and fatigue with the Brexit process is hitting all involved. It seems even headline writers are not immune, with every tired cliche trotted out. The negotiations were “coming down to the wire,” in a “last throw of the dice,” or in a “last-gasp effort.” Sacred deadlines just whizz by. The Brexit process has, over the last four years, been a slow and painful root canal for the entire UK. For Brexiteers itching for their independence, it has been too slow. For Remainers, it has been disastrous. For business, there has been too much uncertainty. Will anyone be truly happy at the end of this? Kicking it up to leaders’ level will be a common feature of the last stretch to try to hammer out the final issues. Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen spoke on Saturday but did not, it seems, make any progress. They charged their negotiating teams with returning to the table on Sunday, followed by more leadership talks on Monday. The EU’s lead negotiator, Michel Barnier, has survived the entire marathon. No doubt he will want to collapse over the finishing line rather than pull up injured. A diet of takeaway pizzas can only last so long. His opposite number, David Frost, seems to be permanently checking with Downing Street that his negotiating strategy will not be ripped up on a typical Johnson whim. The hothouse of Brexit negotiations has been a four-year journey through a minefield, but it is approaching its terminal point. All the tractable issues have been agreed in a draft deal that is more than 600 pages long, but the talks have narrowed to three intractable areas of disagreement: Establishing a level playing field, fair competition rules, and fishing rights. Britain insists that any deal has to respect that the UK is a sovereign and independent nation. This matters for many who voted to leave. It wants to retain the right to set its own rules and determine the quotas for who can fish in British waters. The EU says that is fine, but is Britain prepared to lose all the benefits of being in the single market? It fears that Britain will attempt to undercut European businesses by adopting looser environmental, labor and social standards. EU negotiators believe, probably rightly, that they are in the stronger position, aware as they are that the EU remains by far the biggest destination for UK exports, totaling £294 billion ($389 billion) last year, or 43 percent of all its exports. Fishing is a curious issue in that, in terms of scale, it is a minute part of the trading relationship. Fishing contributes less than 0.5 percent of the British gross domestic product. EU fishing rights in British waters are worth an estimated €650 million a year. The negotiators, stuck in a basement and probably going stir-crazy, are debating the rights for each species of fish. The EU reportedly demanded 10 years of unfettered access to Britain’s fishing waters as the price of a deal. Britain has offered three. The British government is more united than usual. The Cabinet is, on the surface, fully behind the prime minister, which has not always been the case since 2016. Meanwhile, EU member states, typically unified, have different approaches. While some like Germany and Ireland are keen to complete a deal, French leaders have made it clear that their preference is to resume talks in 2021 if a deal is deemed hasty and contrary to their interests. President Emmanuel Macron is enjoying this spoiler role, very much in the mode of Charles de Gaulle, who famously declared “non” to block the UK’s entry into the European Common Market in 1967. He questioned whether Britain really fitted into Europe, believing that it would be a Trojan horse for American interests. A less charitable interpretation is that the French leaders want to dominate the union themselves — an aim made easier without British involvement. The atmosphere at the talks are not helped by the British government continuing to push its controversial Internal Market Bill through Parliament. It contains clauses that would override parts of the UK-EU withdrawal agreement and even a government minister admitted it would violate international law. The bill returns to the House of Commons this week. Even at the most optimistic end of the hazy spectrum in front of all sides, the UK-EU borders will, on Jan. 1, be a muddle. Chris Doyle For a deal to be completed this month, it seems that a breakthrough must be made this week. The 27 EU leaders will gather in Brussels on Thursday, the last such meeting this year. The lack of a deal by then would surely skewer any last vestigial chances of it happening in 2020. The EU Parliament also has to approve any deal and its last sessions of the year take place this week. However, just in case of any last-minute need, a Dec. 28 emergency virtual session has been scheduled. Even at the most optimistic end of the hazy spectrum in front of all sides, the UK-EU borders will, on Jan. 1, be a muddle. It is far from clear that border authorities will be ready to handle, for example, tariffs on exports, new customs requirements, food inspections, and potential long border delays. The number of customs declarations to be processed will rise from the current level of 55 million to 270 million in 2021. The British authorities have opened 10 “inland border facilities” to cater for lorry congestion around key ports including Dover and to provide facilities for checks on customs declarations for goods coming into the country. Is it any wonder that many lorry drivers are considering avoiding British trips in the first few months of 2021? All of this risks shortages of food and other essential products in the UK. It may even delay the import of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccinations from Belgium, so contingency plans are in place to use the military to fly in millions of doses in the event of huge delays at ports and airports. The double whammy of COVID-19 and Brexit will undoubtedly hit the UK’s economy and, to a lesser extent, the EU’s. Getting a deal to diminish that disruption is more vital than ever. It is worth more than a few compromises by all sides in order to get it done. Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News" point-of-view
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