UPDATE 2-Mexico annual inflation dips to lower-than-forecast 3.33% in November

  • 12/9/2020
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(Adds economist’s comments) MEXICO CITY, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Mexican consumer price inflation rose a less-than-expected 3.33% in November and was at the lowest level in five months, data showed on Wednesday, awakening expectations the central bank will resume rate cuts after a “pause” at its last meeting. The median forecast of 15 analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected inflation to reach 3.42% in the year through November, down from 4.09% in October, according to data published by the INEGI national statistics agency. A prolonged period of traditional pre-Christmas discount promotions helped cool price pressures in November, INEGI said. “The discounts and sales pushed the half-month, full-month and annual price variations downward,” said INEGI. Usually lasting just a few days, this year the so-called “Buen Fin” shopping promotions were extended by retailers for 12 days in November, from just four days in 2019 in order to reduce the risk of overcrowding in stores during the continuing coronavirus pandemic. “Given the deep recession, timid fiscal response, and the still relatively high level of nominal rates the inflation backdrop should encourage the central bank to ease further,” Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos said in a note. Ramos said recent favorable inflation data and the Mexican peso’s appreciation have increased the probability that Banxico’s governing board “resumes the easing cycle already at the December meeting.” The central bank, known locally as Banxico, last month held its benchmark lending rate steady at 4.25% following a 1 1/2-year stretch of rate cuts, citing the need for a “pause” to weigh inflationary pressures. Banxico’s next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for Dec. 17. The November annual inflation rate was equal to the 3.33% the indicator hit in June. Consumer prices rose 0.08% in November from the previous month, according to non-seasonally adjusted figures, the lowest monthly rise since it fell 1.01% in April. The core index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, fell 0.08% during the month. Annual core consumer prices increased 3.66% in the year through November. (Reporting by Anthony Esposito Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Jonathan Oatis)

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