EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real jumps after central bank surprise, strong retail sales

  • 12/10/2020
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* Brazil posts 8.3% jump in Oct retail sales * Vale supported by record iron ore prices * Peru c.bank set to hold rate at 0.25% By Sruthi Shankar Dec 10 (Reuters) - The Brazilian real jumped on Thursday after the central bank hinted for the first time its policy easing cycle could end soon amid a rise in inflation, while data showed a better-than-expected upward move in October retail sales. The real firmed by more than 1% to trade at 5.1120 per dollar, outperforming its Latin American peers. The central bank"s rate-setting committee - known as Copom - kept its key interest rate at a record low 2.00% and said conditions for forward guidance still hold, but for the first time, outlined a scenario where that guidance could be withdrawn. "That does not mean that the central bank will soon hike rates, but at least rate hikes are slowly becoming a prospect again," said You-Na Park-Heger, FX & EM analyst at Commerzbank, in a note. Figures this week showed annual consumer inflation in November topped 4% for the first time since February. That is the mid-point of the central bank"s target range for the year. The real has rallied about 15% since hitting a record low of 5.9708 per dollar in mid-May on continuing recovery in Latin America"s largest economy and optimism around the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. Government data on Thursday showed retail sales in October grew 8.3% from the year-earlier period, compared to expectations for a 6.7% increase, as per Reuters poll. Sao Paolo shares gained 0.5% to trade near their strongest levels since February, with banks providing the biggest boost. Mining company Vale rose over a percent as benchmark iron ore futures in China surged more than 7% to hit a contract high. Shares in Brazil"s biggest hospital chain Rede D"or soared 13% on their stock market debut after the company raised 11.4 billion reais ($2.24 billion) in an IPO this week. Among other currencies, the Mexican peso edged lower, but the Colombian and Chilean pesos on the back of strong commodity prices. The Peruvian sol held steady ahead of a central bank meeting where interest rates are expected to be held at a historic low of 0.25%. Latin American stock indexes and currencies: Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1250.08 -0.46 MSCI LatAm 2368.13 0.39 Brazil Bovespa 113596.68 0.53 Mexico IPC 0.00 0 Chile IPSA 4174.00 0.61 Argentina MerVal 0.00 0 Colombia COLCAP 1383.59 0 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.1120 1.19 Mexico peso 19.9850 -0.65 Chile peso 738.6 0.58 Colombia peso 3466.63 0.21 Peru sol 3.5968 0.05 Argentina peso (interbank) 82.1200 -0.09 (Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

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