* Rate on hold, as expected * Says in statement that the first hike seen in H1 2022 * Hike in Q1 2022 “probable” -governor * Norway’s currency strengthens vs euro (Adds interview with governor, updates currency) OSLO, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Norway’s central bank kept its policy interest rate at a record-low zero percent on Thursday, as expected, while warning that a rate increase may come earlier than it had foreseen as the global economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. Norges Bank said it had pencilled in an increase for the first few months of 2022, six months or more ahead of its previous prediction, pushing up the value of the Norwegian crown against the euro and dollar. “The policy rate forecast implies a rate at the current level for over a year ahead, followed by a gradual rise from the first half of 2022 as activity approaches a normal level,” Governor Oeystein Olsen said in a statement. The first rate hike could come even earlier, Olsen later said. “There is a likelihood, and it is probable, given the path, that we raise rates for the first time during the first quarter of 2022,” Olsen told Reuters. Still, Olsen stressed that the rollout of vaccines against the coronavirus in Norway and elsewhere would be “decisive” for the bank’s economic forecasts. “Our downside scenario is characterised by bottlenecks in the access to the vaccine and also some new accelerated, spread of the disease having an effect on our “This is a message on the hawkish side,” Nordea Chief Economist Kjetil Olsen said. “They are bringing a potential rate hike forward by about half a year as the vaccination rollout could lead to a faster recovery.” Economists at Swedbank meanwhile predicted a rate hike could come as early as the third quarter of 2021 as the economy gathers speed, while Danske Bank said an increase was likely to take place in the fourth quarter. Norway’s currency, the crown, strengthened to 10.49 against the euro at 1148 GMT, up 0.9% for the day. A rate increase within the next 18 months could make Norges Bank first among the G10 central banks to raise the cost of borrowing. “By speaking about possible rate hike and bringing this possibility even more forward, Norges Bank stands out among other central banks which are still discussing how to stimulate the economy,” Nordea’s Kjetil Olsen said. While Norges Bank in September predicted that its policy rate would rise to 0.5% by the end of 2023, it now says it could reach 1% by the same time. (Writing by Terje Solsvik; additional reporting by Victoria Klesty; Editing by Larry King and Alexandra Hudson)