TREASURIES-Yields soar in wake of Georgia election, 10-year tops 1%

  • 1/6/2021
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(Recasts, updates yields, adds FOMC minutes, U.S. Capitol protest, analyst comments) By Karen Pierog CHICAGO, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Runoff elections in Georgia that eventually gave Democrats control of the U.S. Senate hoisted the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield on Wednesday over the 1% level for the first time since March before the rise was tempered by the swarming of the U.S. Capitol by pro-Trump protesters. A mob dotted with President Donald Trump"s signature Make America Great Again caps swarmed America"s symbol of democratic government, where lawmakers were certifying the Electoral College vote for President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris. Increased prospects for further economic stimulus measures combined with fears the U.S. Federal Reserve could taper off its bond purchases sooner than expected, sent yields soaring with the 10-year yield reaching a session high of 1.0524%. It was last up 7.5 basis points at 1.0304%. The 30-year yield also reached levels last touched in March. It was last up 10.2 basis points at 1.8057%. "Yields are still up significantly. The little backup is just due to what"s going on in the Capitol," said Andrew Richman, senior fixed income analyst for Sterling Capital Management, adding that the protest overshadowed the release of minutes from the Fed"s December meeting. Raphael Warnock, a Baptist preacher at the historic church once led by the Reverend Martin Luther King Jr., beat Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler in Tuesday"s election to become the first Black senator in the history of the Deep South state. In the other race, Democrat Jon Ossoff beat Republican incumbent David Perdue. A win by both Democrats would give the party narrow control of the Senate, increasing the odds of passing legislation to lessen the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, as well as an infrastructure spending package, according to Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Capital Management in Philadelphia. "With those programs two things happen," he said. "One, there"s a chance that greater fiscal spending generates inflation. Two, there"s a high probability of greater long-duration Treasury supply. The usual supply-demand dynamics in the market mean that greater supply will push yields a little bit higher." Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen in Minneapolis, said he does not see the 10-year yield topping 2% this year. "There"s still growth challenges out there. The first quarter is going to be bumpy," he said pointing to a surge in coronavirus cases and slow rollout of vaccines. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said recent comments by Fed officials suggesting possible tapering off in the central bank"s quantitative easing bond buying program as soon as this year were much more important to the market than the Georgia election results. Minutes from the Fed"s meeting last month indicated nearly unanimous support to keep the bond-buying program unchanged, but left a wide berth for officials in the future to decide if and when changes should be made. Ahead of Friday"s December employment report, a surprisingly weak ADP National Employment Report showed U.S. private company payrolls decreased by 123,000 jobs last month, the first decline since April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls would rise by 88,000 in December. On the other hand, the Commerce Department reported that new orders for U.S.-made goods increased more than expected in November and business investment in equipment was solid, pointing to sustained recovery in manufacturing. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was last up 1.8 basis points at 0.1408%. A closely watched part of the yield curve, which measures the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes , hit its widest level since 2017 at 91.36 basis points. It was last up 5.78 basis points at 88.8 basis points. The spread between three-month bills and 10-year notes reached its widest level since March at 96.3 basis points. January 6 Wednesday 4:01PM New York / 2201 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 0.0875 0.0887 0.005 Six-month bills 0.09 0.0913 0.005 Two-year note 99-248/256 0.1408 0.018 Three-year note 99-198/256 0.2024 0.029 Five-year note 99-194/256 0.4242 0.047 Seven-year note 99-72/256 0.7308 0.064 10-year note 98-140/256 1.0304 0.075 20-year bond 96-72/256 1.5942 0.100 30-year bond 95-216/256 1.8057 0.102 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 6.50 -0.25 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 6.00 -0.75 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 5.50 -0.75 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap -1.50 -0.75 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -27.75 -1.25 spread (By Karen Pierog; additional reporting by Vidya Ranganathand; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

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